Kremlin initiates an information war against Moldova mirroring Ukraine pre‑assault tactics
During a commentary about the conflict in the separatist region of Moldova, Transnistria, on February 14, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, claimed that the Moldovan government is under the control of the United States and the European Union. Furthermore, he added that the West impeded the negotiation procedure about Transnistria.
These talks involved Russia, Ukraine, Transnistria, Moldova, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The United States and the European Union were observers. Lavrov pledged that Russia will do everything possible to restart this procedure.
Oleg Serebrian, the Deputy Prime Minister of Moldova, announced on January 28 that Moldova wouldn't re-engage in talks unless the relationship between Russia and Ukraine improves and the Ukrainian war ends.
Lavrov also vocalized his concern for the approximately 200,000 Russian citizens living in Transnistria. He affirmed that Russia will not permit these citizens to become victims of yet another Western squabble.
Lavrov accused Moldova of deciding against providing subsidies from the state budget to regions, such as Gagauzia, that oppose its integration with the European Union. He equated this situation to the West's refusal in 2013, to provide Ukraine's former President, Viktor Yanukovych, with ample time to assess the association agreement with the EU. According to Lavrov, the West is imposing a similar ultimatum on Moldova regarding its EU membership.
ISW: Russia aims to validate potential attempts to destabilize Moldova
The ISW posits that Kremlin representatives are striving to create a narrative that would validate any potential initiatives by Russia to destabilize Moldova and hinder its integration with the West.
Other representatives from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including spokesperson Maria Zakharova, have previously alleged that Moldovan authorities are economically strangling Transnistria to hinder a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in the region.
A military blogger connected to the Kremlin propagates the narrative that Moldova is militarizing itself to integrate Transnistria forcibly and that Russia should be prepared for such an event.
Recently, Moldovan authorities accused Russian "peace forces" stationed in Transnistria of organizing drills and deploying weapons within the Moldovan security zone, an action in violation of OSCE commission protocols.
The ISW projects that although it is uncertain when a potential Russian hybrid operation in Moldova might commence, the Kremlin is systematically setting up conditions to possibly implement it soon.
