Kremlin frees American in bold prisoner swap with Trump aid
The Kremlin has released American prisoner Marc Fogel, who spent over three years in a Russian prison for drug smuggling. According to the White House, the operation's success is proof of "goodwill" on the part of the Russians. "It looks like a public relations gesture from Putin," says WP's Marcin Faliński, a former Polish intelligence officer.
The situation unfolded on Tuesday when a private plane belonging to Steve Witkoff, an advisor to Donald Trump, was spotted on online flight radars headed for Moscow. It was speculated that the visit might be related to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. According to "The New York Times," Witkoff was reportedly authorized by the Trump administration to "open a diplomatic channel with Russia, which could be the first step in talks to end the war in Ukraine."
Fox News reported on Wednesday that Donald Trump's advisor met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The conversation was said to last three hours. The White House and the Kremlin declined to comment.
The meeting between Witkoff and Putin also aimed to secure the release of Marc Fogel, who was sentenced to 14 years in a Russian prison. On Tuesday evening, the media reported that the Russians had released the American prisoner.
Strict-regime penal colony
Marc Fogel is a former employee of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow. Before his arrest, he worked in the Russian capital as a teacher at an English-language school.
In August 2021, Russian security services accused him of using his diplomatic status to organize a drug supply channel to Russia. At the end of 2022, he began serving a 14-year sentence. Two years later, the Biden administration determined that Fogel had been unlawfully detained.
The American teacher was placed in a strict-regime penal colony. Fogel denied the charges from the beginning, claiming he had 0.6 ounces of medical marijuana prescribed by a doctor for his back pain.
Who did the Russians exchange the American for?
Michael Waltz, Trump's national security advisor, stated that Witkoff, on the president's orders, brought Fogel from Russia on his plane as part of an exchange. However, he did not reveal who the Russians exchanged for the American prisoner.
Unofficially, it is said that in return for Fogel, the Russian authorities might have demanded the release of Alexander Vinnik, one of the executives of the BTC-e cryptocurrency exchange. Vinnik was detained in 2017 on charges of involvement in extortion, identity theft, and drug trafficking. In May 2024, he pleaded guilty.
When asked if the USA offered Russia something in exchange for the teacher's release, Trump replied: "not much."
According to Marcin Faliński, more similar prisoner exchanges may occur shortly.
- Of course, the USA is talking to Russia. Unofficially, through intelligence services or diplomatic channels. It shows that regardless of the war in Ukraine, communication channels are still functioning and are doing well, - says WP's Marcin Faliński, former officer of the Intelligence Agency.
"There will be more and more gestures like this"
In his opinion, it looks like a public relations gesture from Putin.
- And there will be more such gestures. Putin will graciously release an American prisoner, and Trump will reciprocate in kind. Both sides will be warming their image ahead of possible negotiations to end the war, - Faliński believes.
He reminds us that, contrary to appearances, communication channels between the USA and Russia operated even after the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine.
- They had to, at least regarding Russian threats to use a nuclear bomb. It was known that the Kremlin's declarations were mainly PR and for internal use, but Washington monitors such matters closely - emphasizes the interlocutor from Wirtualna Polska.
As noted by "The New York Times," Witkoff's visit - Trump's Middle East envoy - to Moscow is the first disclosed trip of a high-ranking U.S. official since William J. Burns (CIA director under Biden's administration). Burns flew to the Russian capital in November 2021 to try to prevent the invasion of Ukraine.
"But there's one catch"
- In my opinion, Russia is increasingly tired of the war, and at the same time, Russian business is pressuring the Kremlin. It wants to return to the pre-conflict state. Moscow has no alternative; it must talk to Washington. Trump wants to give Moscow an honorable exit from the conflict, - assesses Marcin Faliński.
In his opinion, Trump will want to end the war in Ukraine because he strategically looks at other goals in the world: Greenland, the Panama Canal, but also competition with China.
- This also includes resolving the issue of the Palestinians in Gaza and the issue of Hamas. He wants to take advantage of the fact that Russia has lost its influence in the Middle East. And it won't rebuild it quickly, - claims the former intelligence officer.
Faliński points out another aspect.
- With gestures like the release of an American prisoner, Russia is showcasing Trump's influence. There's one catch: Putin might "overreach" here. The American president dislikes losing, - reminds the former intelligence officer.
- He is moving to a strategic level and wants to solve the problem of the war in Ukraine. At all costs. And the Russians might, like American soldiers during the withdrawal from Afghanistan, face chaos and confusion, - reminds the former intelligence officer.
Sylwester Ruszkiewicz, journalist of Wirtualna Polska
