Kremlin eyes Ukraine partition; new plan targets US policy shift
According to information provided by the Interfax-Ukraine agency, the Russian Ministry of Defense has developed a plan to dismantle Ukraine's statehood by dividing its territory into three separate parts. This project could be presented to the new administration of the United States.
3:48 PM EST, November 20, 2024
The agency, citing sources within the Ukrainian special services, reports on a Kremlin document forecasting the military and political situation in the world through 2045. This plan envisions the partition of Ukraine, which could lead to the loss of its current sovereignty.
Ukraine divided into "three separate parts"
The first part would consist of an area called "new regions of Russia," formed after the annexation by Moscow of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, in addition to Crimea and Sevastopol. Russian military activities are currently concentrated on consolidating control over these areas.
The second part would be a "pro-Russian state formation" with pro-Russian authorities, encompassing the regions of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, and the city of Kyiv. According to Moscow's plan, this state would reject integration with the European Union and NATO, while permitting a Russian military presence on its territory.
The third part consists of "disputed territories" in western Ukraine, covering the Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Chernivtsi, and Zakarpattia regions. The Kremlin believes the future of these areas should be determined by Russia in collaboration with neighboring countries including Poland, Hungary, and Romania.
Russia considers four scenarios
Russia is considering four scenarios for the international situation's development. The scenarios of "US and Western dominance" and "China achieving the status of a leading world power" are viewed as unfavorable and might occur if the conflict with Ukraine results in a loss or stalemate.
Conversely, the scenarios of "shaping a multipolar world and the division of spheres of influence by leading actors" and "regionalization/chaotization" assume Russia's victory over Ukraine, leading to developments favorable to the Kremlin.
It is possible that Moscow will attempt to present this plan to the new authorities in Washington through the governments and representatives of third-party states.
