ISW predicts potential Russian offensive in Donetsk by summer 2024

The American Institute for the Study of War suggests that the Russian command could focus its expected offensive operation around the turn of spring and summer on the western Donetsk perimeter.

In its analysis of recent military operations, the Institute for the Study of War highlighted the situation in Avdiivka, a Ukrainian city that fell into Russian hands in mid-February.

Ukrainian forces successfully repelled an attack by a Russian mechanized battalion near Avdiivka on March 30, as reported by ISW in its latest report, which was released overnight from Sunday to Monday Eastern Time.

According to Ukrainian reports, the Russian military deployed 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles in a significant mechanized assault near Tonenke on Saturday. "Geolocated photos from March 31 reveal a considerable number of destroyed and damaged Russian armored vehicles and tanks along the road northwest of Tonenke, west of Avdiivka," ISW noted.

The magnitude of the Russian mechanized attack on March 30 is notable, the ISW analysts pointed out. Such a comprehensive attack by a mechanized battalion has not been seen since the start of the Russian offensive on Avdiivka in late October 2023.

The report suggests that the Russian command might prioritize the Avdiivka region within the Donetsk perimeter.

"At the turn of spring and summer of 2024, the Russian command might focus its upcoming offensive operation on the western Donetsk perimeter, hoping to capitalize on the gradual, though modest, advancements of Russian forces in this area," the ISW report indicates.

Ukrainian officials have recently warned about the accumulation of Russian military personnel along the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis, near Bakhmut, in the vicinity of Avdiivka, and the western Zaporizhzhia perimeter.

"However, ISW continues to estimate that Russian forces are likely only capable of executing one coordinated large-scale offensive operation at a time due to their limitations in manpower and planning," the report states.

Source: Institute for the Study of War