ISW is sure. These are Kremlin's intentions

According to Russian sources, the aggressor's armed forces carried out attacks on Friday to the north and south of Avdiivka. Video materials, which have been verified for location, suggest that the Russians have moved their positions south of Kranohorivka (3.1 miles north of Avdiivka) and southeast of Pervomaiske (6.8 miles southwest of Avdiivka) - such information was relayed by ISW in its latest analysis.

There have also been conflicting reports about the possibility of Russian forces taking over coke-chemical plants in Avdiivka. However, as of the time of publication, the Institute for War Studies has not found any evidence to confirm that the plant has been taken over by Russian units.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian side reported successfully repelling enemy attacks in the Avdiivka area.

One of the Russian "military bloggers" suggested that Ukrainians are using minefields to slow down Russian attacks. Another source, on the other hand, complained about the low effectiveness of Russian artillery, which was explained by the wear and tear of the barrels.

The ISW, citing pro-Kremlin sources, states that the Russian command is "metering" and "minimizing" information about the situation in Avdiivka in the information space. The likely goal of such actions is to control the message and avoid potential "information shocks".

According to the think tank, the Kremlin is trying to use its army's actions in Avdiivka, as well as other local Russian attacks, to present them as a "takeover of operational initiative" in Ukraine. Among other things, a statement by Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, who stated on October 13 that the Ukrainian counteroffensive had "formally ended" was cited.

However, the ISW assesses that it is unlikely Ukraine will end its counter-offensive operations. The Institute predicts that they will continue in the winter, albeit their pace and scale may decrease.