Israel-Iran tensions rise: Fears of nuclear strike retaliation
After Iran attacks Israel, can the government in Jerusalem respond with a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities? From a military perspective, such a strike cannot be ruled out. However, the USA would have to give consent, and Washington does not want to open the "gates of hell," believes Gen. Roman Polko, former commander of GROM.
6:48 PM EDT, October 2, 2024
Following the Iranian missile attack, Israel threatened Tehran with consequences. "Iran made a big mistake today. Its missile attack on Israel failed, but Tehran will pay for it," said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday evening. Recall that Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, most of which were shot down by air defense.
"This is a serious and dangerous escalation that will have consequences. Our defensive and offensive capabilities are on high alert. We will choose where, when, and how the retaliation will occur," emphasized Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson Gen. Daniel Hagari.
According to "The Wall Street Journal" sources in the American administration, Israeli authorities are considering retaliation scenarios, with Iranian nuclear and oil installations as potential targets. This includes a strike at the very "heart" of Iran's nuclear program — the uranium enrichment facilities in the city of Natanz.
According to Gen. Roman Polko, Israel has already prepared a map of targets that could be potential retaliation objectives.
"Opening the gates of hell"
"It likely includes Iranian nuclear and oil installations. From a military perspective, such a strike cannot be ruled out. And such a scenario must certainly be built in Israel," says Gen. Roman Polko, former head of GROM, to Wirtualna Polska.
However, he emphasizes that carrying out such an attack could not be done without the consent of the United States.
"While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would like to involve Washington in this war, on the other side, there is no will to engage and escalate a global conflict in the Middle East. I don't think there will be consent for this type of retaliation, as it would mean opening the 'gates of hell.' And it would be met with a considerably stronger retaliatory strike from Iran. Israel always responds more forcefully, but certain red lines will not be crossed," believes the former head of the special unit GROM.
Iran has previously warned that if Israel strikes its nuclear facilities, Tehran will be forced to develop nuclear weapons.
"In the case that the Zionist regime attacks our nuclear facilities, our deterrence policy will change," said Kamal Kharazi, advisor to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
According to Gen. Roman Polko, if strikes on nuclear installations were to occur, the conflict would spiral out of control.
"Neither Israel, the USA, nor Iran needs this. Also not Russia, to whom Tehran supplies weapons used in the war in Ukraine. Iran will likely continue to wage its creeping war using terrorist organizations, local militias, fighters, and various provocations," says the former military officer.
In his opinion, a more realistic response is the continuation of the Israeli intelligence mission targeting Hezbollah structures, which conduct a proxy war on behalf of Iran.
"It will not be a direct confrontation with Iran but more the elimination of Iranian militias or key persons in Hezbollah. Israel will respond, but through intelligence operations and missions in southern Lebanon. Israeli services, namely Mossad, recently demonstrated their strength by eliminating Hezbollah leaders. I have no doubt that those who remain have a lot to fear," comments Gen. Roman Polko.
Sylwester Ruszkiewicz
