Islamic State claims responsibility for deadly Moscow concert hall shooting
"Such attacks are designed to ensure there's either a second bomb or a series of attacks. This weekend, residents of Moscow will likely stay indoors," says Witold Jurasz in an interview with Onet. The former diplomat also believes that deploying a nuclear bomb wouldn't benefit Putin.
2:41 PM EDT, March 23, 2024
On Friday evening, armed individuals stormed the Crocus City Hall concert hall in Krasnogorsk, near Moscow, and opened fire on the audience. The attack occurred just minutes before the concert began, with the auditorium filled.
The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the shooting, though it has yet to provide proof to support this claim.
The Crocus Complex according to Jurasz
- "The Crocus concert hall is part of a trio of venues within the complex, which includes a luxurious shopping center, an exhibition and trade center, and the concert hall itself. Everything is owned by the Russian-Azerbaijani oligarch Aras Agalarov. His son was previously married to the President of Azerbaijan's daughter until 2015. Agalarov has worked with Donald Trump on music videos, and Trump was a guest of honor at the opening of one of the complex's sections," explains Witold Jurasz, journalist and former diplomat, shedding light on the background in an interview with Onet.
- "Security has always been tight there, and the opulence is staggering," he adds.
According to Jurasz, since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has struggled to safeguard facilities within its own borders.
The prospect of Russia using nuclear weapons
- "What else can the Russians do? Some suggest they might resort to tactical nuclear weapons, but that idea is outdated. Russians won't use tactical nuclear weapons since doing so would alienate China and India, leaving Russia completely isolated. They might bluff, as they excel in rhetoric, but they fall short in combat," Jurasz asserts.
In his view, the attack in Moscow could indirectly benefit Ukraine. "The Russians will be compelled to redirect forces to strengthen Moscow's defenses, necessitating tens of thousands of soldiers, which Russia cannot spare," Jurasz explains.
He mentions, "They're unlikely to be pulled from the front lines, but rather from areas behind the front. This will open opportunities for sabotage activities in those areas, like refinery bombings."
- "Expect a surge in propaganda, yet the dynamics of US-Russian intelligence communications remain a secret. What we do know, however, is that these discussions are quite active," the source from Onet points out.
Potential motives behind Putin's alleged involvement in the attack
- "It's not conclusive that the attack was orchestrated by Russian services, though such a theory is conceivable. It appears less likely than the involvement of some Islamist group seizing the moment," suggests Jurasz.
- "The Russian state has always been somewhat disorganized. Attacks like these are typically planned to either involve multiple explosives or to occur in a sequence. It's likely that Moscow's residents will choose to remain indoors this weekend" - he adds.
- "With Vladimir Putin, all bets are off, as his actions are unpredictable, and while he has been accused of heinous crimes, any move must be advantageous for him," the expert concludes, touching upon the speculation that Russian services might have instigated the attack in Moscow.
Source: Onet
