Iran's president dies in helicopter crash, succession uncertain

The President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash that occurred in East Azerbaijan Province. Who will take his place? According to the ISW think tank, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei was preparing him as his successor. Now, he must choose another favorite, as Americans have identified one candidate.

The presidential helicopter crashed near Julfa in the Iranian East Azerbaijan Province. The machine hit the side of a mountain and was engulfed in flames.

Aboard during the tragic flight were, among others, Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hossein Amirabdollahian, East Azerbaijan's Governor Malik Rahmati, and Imam from Tabriz Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem.

The President's death was confirmed in a government statement; earlier, the information about Raisi's death was conveyed by the head of the Iranian Red Crescent, Pir Hossein Kolivand.

The accident happened as President Raisi was returning from a ceremony marking the opening of a dam on the Aras River on the border between Iran and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev attended the ceremony.

It should be noted that after President Ebrahim Raisi's death, First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber temporarily took over his seat. This was approved by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds actual power in the country.

In Iran, a national mourning period will last for five days following the president's death. Raisi's death is shocking both for the daily management of the Iranian government and the long-term vision of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's regime.

Since Raisi's death, there has been no favorite for the title of the next supreme leader. According to analysts from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), one of Khamenei's sons, Mojtaba Khamenei, is widely considered a leading candidate. He is being groomed to become the country's next supreme leader.

Mojtaba Khamenei significantly influences the regime, especially in the internal security apparatus. Although Mojtaba could certainly replace his father, it is premature to state that this is the most likely option.

Khamenei and other powerful factions that have supported Raisi for years must now reconsider who they would like to become the next supreme leader. They might not necessarily support Mojtaba. A member of the Assembly of Experts stated in February 2024 that Khamenei is opposed to hereditary succession.

In 50 days, Iran should hold elections to elect a new president. These were originally scheduled for 2025.