Iran’s powerful ballistic missile arsenal strikes Israel again

Iran has once again conducted a ballistic missile attack on Israel. We present Tehran's missile capabilities and explain what might have hit the attacked country.

Ballistic missiles are the Ayatollahs' primary security policy. Iran has been developing this weapon for about two decades. Initially, their base was Soviet or North Korean missiles, but over time Tehran began producing its own.

These are very dangerous weapons because they can be intercepted by very few anti-aircraft systems, which is also very costly for the defending side. The main problem is their very high flight speed, reaching in some cases even Mach 5 (about 3,300 mph) or more. For Iran, only ballistic missiles with a range exceeding 620 miles are suitable for attacking Israel.

In the attack on Israel, Iran used its ballistic missiles with a range of over 620 miles, including Shahab-3, Kheybar-Shekan, Fattah, Ghadr, and Emad. All of them can be launched from mobile launchers, making them difficult to detect and neutralize.

In 2020, Iran was reported to have 50 Shahab-3 missile launchers and several launchers for Ghadr and Emad missiles, but over the past four years, these numbers may have increased significantly. The latest estimates suggest that Iran has about 200 of these launchers. Given this, Iran may possess hundreds and even a few thousand missiles.

The foundation of Iran's ballistic program was the old, Soviet, non-guided Luna-M missiles, which, after modifications, are produced locally under the name Zelzal. These missiles, about 29 feet long and weighing 7,700 lbs, were eventually equipped with advanced guidance systems based on inertial and satellite navigation, creating the Fateh family with a range of up to 310 miles.

The latest versions of these have an accuracy of about 33 feet and catalyzed the production of longer missiles with greater ranges. The first of these were the Shahab-3 missiles, about 52 feet long. They have a range of 810 miles and were introduced into service in 2003. Shahab-3 can carry warheads weighing more than 1,500 lbs. Over time, improved versions of these rockets, such as Ghadr and Emad, were created, with a range of about 1,240 miles.

Ghadr and Emad are characterized by MIRV warheads, which allow them to launch warheads targeting different objectives. This forces the defense to use, for example, three anti-missiles for each launched missile. It is worth noting that, just like Shahab-3, these are liquid-fueled constructions. It is more efficient but very corrosive, so the missiles cannot be kept ready for launch for a long time and need to be refueled just before use.

For this reason, solid-fuel engines, which can be kept ready for use for years, are the norm for ballistic missiles. However, the downside is a shorter missile range in the same format and more challenging production. Iran has also mastered this technology, exemplified by the Kheybar-Shekan missile with an estimated range of 870 miles, first observed in 2022.

It is worth noting that the remains of all three types of missiles have already been found on the territory of Israel or have been recorded during launches in Iranian propaganda material. Tehran has thus decided to use even its newest missiles in the attack.