Iowa poll shock: Trump triumphs despite Harris lead prediction
The sensational poll from the state of Iowa did not materialize. Just before the election, one of the polling agencies predicted a win for Kamala Harris, while Donald Trump won there by a very large margin. The study's author spoke out.
8:33 AM EST, November 6, 2024
In a poll published on Saturday by Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register, 47 percent of Iowa respondents expressed a desire to vote for Kamala Harris, while Trump garnered 44 percent. This result caused a fair amount of surprise, as Iowa is a state Trump won in both 2016 and 2020.
Ann Selzer's forecast did not come true. The "New York Times" reports that after counting 95 percent of the votes, Trump had the support of 56.3 percent, while his rival secured 42.3 percent.
The poll findings we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom did not match what the Iowa electorate ultimately decided in the voting booth today. I’ll be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that happened. And, I welcome what that process might teach me, stated Ann Selzer, as quoted by the "Des Moines Register".
Selzer explained that the errors may have stemmed from several technical factors.
"Technically, the poll had some 'give' in that neither candidate reached 50%. So, the people who said they had voted/would vote for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. could easily have switched to Donald Trump. The late deciders could have opted for Trump in the final days of the campaign after interviewing was complete. The people who had already voted but opted not to tell our interviewers for whom they voted could have given Trump an edge," she explained.
