India's water threat: Tensions with Pakistan resurface
Despite the ceasefire agreements, India has not abandoned its threats to limit water supplies to neighboring Pakistan. "Water and blood cannot flow together," said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a speech last week.
The ceasefire, agreed upon last week following India’s airstrikes on targets in Pakistan, marks the first step towards de-escalating tension. However, the fundamental disputes regarding the Kashmir region remain unresolved.
India continues to consider using access to the upper course of the Indus River as leverage against Pakistan. It’s worth recalling that India withdrew from the Indus Waters Treaty, thereby officially using access to water as a weapon.
Following the attack by militants on tourists in the resort town of Pahalgam in southern Kashmir on April 21, 2025, where 26 people were killed, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered officials to accelerate planning and implementation of projects on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers, the three water bodies in the Indus system mainly intended for Pakistan's use.
Water and blood
India accuses Pakistan of supporting the activities of the jihadist militant group Lashkar-i-Toiba. Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized that "water and blood cannot flow together."
There are now reports that India has a plan ready to expand dams and canals that could increase water extraction from rivers, which could impact Pakistan's agriculture and energy sectors. It could also release the water at any moment, potentially flooding Pakistan.
One of the key projects involves doubling the length of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River to 75 miles, according to reports by Reuters.
The canal runs through India to the agricultural region of Punjab in Pakistan. It was constructed in the 19th century, even before the signing of the water treaty regulating access to water for both countries.
India has the right to limited water withdrawal from the Chenab for irrigation needs. However, expanding the canal, which experts say may take several years, would allow redirecting even 150 cubic meters (about 5300 cubic feet) of water per second, more than three times compared to the current approximately 40 cubic meters (about 1400 cubic feet), according to Reuters based on four sources who have seen the documents.
