Hungary's Orbán instigates new conflict with EU

Despite global attention being consumed by the wars in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine recently, Orbán has managed to recapture the spotlight within Europe, and beyond Hungary. While it's true that Orbán's political clout on the continent has lessened in recent years—demonstrated by the loss of allies in Central and Southeast Europe —Orbán has returned in true form as the EU "agitator" and the proponent of an "illiberal state".

This week, Orbán expressed his intention to veto Ukraine's EU accession talks in an indirect announcement. This came via a letter to the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.

In addition to this significant move, the Hungarian government recently launched another "National Consultation," partnered with a national poster campaign. This campaign is targeted largely against Ukraine and the EU's policy on migration. Through the so-called "law of sovereignty," Orbán continues his suppression of political opposition.

Recently, Hungary's Prime Minister has become more radical in his rhetoric. He equates the EU's corruption proceedings against Hungary for rule of law violations with the 1956 invasion of Hungary by the Soviet Army, which resulted in the brutal suppression of the Hungarian revolution.

Furthermore, Orbán accuses "Brussels bureaucrats" of trying to enforce a "population exchange" with Islamic immigrants and promote an "LGBTQ lifestyle" amongst Hungarians.

The ongoing "National Consultation" mirrors this rhetoric. During these campaigns, the government distributes questionnaires to all Hungarian households, loaded with leading questions awaiting a ticked response.

The present consultation suggests, inaccurately, that the EU has relaxed child protection regulations due to increasing "aggressive LGBTQ propaganda focused on children." This claim is not based on any real proposal from Brussels. In fact, the European Commission sued Hungary at the Court of Justice of the EU in 2022 over a law equating "LGBTQ propaganda" with pedophilia. This law prohibits transmitting any content related to homosexuality and transsexuality to minors. As a result, in July 2023, a Budapest bookstore was fined approximately 36,000 dollars for selling a comic about gay love without special packaging.

Questions of a similar nature pervade all parts of the consultation. For example, whether Hungarians want so-called "immigrant ghettos" supposedly planned by Brussels, or if they support EU financial assistance for Palestinian terrorists.

The section of the consultation concerning Ukraine is also presented in a manipulative manner. Citizens are asked if they support Ukraine's EU membership, given that Ukraine would then receive a large part of EU subsidies. The options suggest citizens are either for peace or for "more EU money on the battlefield." Further, they are asked whether they support the protection of Hungarian farmers against any alleged import of genetically modified Ukrainian grain and if they agree that Hungary should receive EU subsidies before Ukraine gets any further aid.

Viktor Orbán regularly blames the West for Russia's war with Ukraine and accuses it of prolonging the conflict in his weekly appearances on Hungarian state radio. He is urging for normalization of relations with Russia and the lifting of EU sanctions against Moscow.

Currently, Hungary is the only EU country that is demonstrating how to embark on significant projects with Russia during the war. Recently, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and the director of the Russian Atomic Energy Agency Aleksey Likhachev finalized a schedule for the long-planned expansion of the Hungarian nuclear power plant Paks.

The upcoming "sovereignty law," which gives the Orbán regime additional ammunition to combat critics, has links to Russia. This law proposes making foreign funding of political parties and electoral campaigns a punishable act. It also proposes the establishment of a "Protection of Sovereignty" office to monitor violations of national sovereignty by parties, social organizations, and individuals.

This proposed office is to be given nearly unbounded access to the data of the scrutinized organizations and individuals. Based on its "sovereignty reports," preliminary and criminal proceedings could be initiated against organizations and individuals, providing a wide scope to harass and trouble critics of the Orbán regime.

Interestingly, neither the law nor the explanatory text clearly defines "national sovereignty" or what could constitute its violation. The draft text is so ambiguous that even media outlets receiving donations from abroad could potentially be punished.

In a way similar to Russia's "Law on Foreign Agents" from 2012, civil organizations can be prohibited and individuals criminalized. A similar law demanding private organizations label themselves as "foreign-funded" after receiving a certain amount of foreign donations was passed in Hungary but was declared illegal by the Court of Justice of the EU in June 2020. The current "sovereignty law" can be seen as an expanded, tougher version of this law.

There have been strong protests against this law in Hungary. Various prominent NGOs issued a joint statement calling the law a "Protection of Lawlessness", not of sovereignty.

Prominent Hungarian lawyers consider the proposal to be incompatible with the constitution and EU law. Yet, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán remains unfazed. In a recent Swiss conference, he announced his strategy: "Hungary is not a black sheep in Europe, but the first swallow."