Hong Kong cardinal's papal bid poses political test for China
The election of a cardinal from Hong Kong as pope could present a political challenge for China, where the number of Catholics is growing steadily. How would the communist government react to such a situation?
What you need to know
- The conclave will begin on May 7th, and one of the favorites is Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle.
- The Church in China: China does not have its own cardinal-electors, except for the cardinal from Hong Kong.
- China-Vatican relations: In 2018, an agreement was reached on the joint nomination of bishops in China.
Pope Francis passed away on April 21st, 2025, which according to canon law means that the conclave must begin at least 15 days after his death. The cardinal-electors will gather in the Sistine Chapel on May 7th, 2025, to choose the new pope. One of the frontrunners in the race for the papal throne is 67-year-old Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle.
Among the so-called cardinal-electors, the clergy from whom the pope is chosen, 53 are from Europe and 23 from Asia. We explain why there is no representative from China among the cardinal-electors, the situation of the Catholic Church in the country and how the current communist government might react to the election of a pope from Hong Kong.
Possible election of a pope from China
The Catholic Church in China is developing dynamically, even though the country does not have its own cardinal-electors. An exception is Cardinal Stephen Chow from Hong Kong, who represents the Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China. In China, there is the so-called Official Church, which doesn’t recognize the Vatican's authority, and the so-called illegal underground church.
Relations between China and the Vatican were cold for centuries, but in recent years they have warmed up. In 2018, a temporary agreement was reached regarding the joint nomination of bishops. Pope Francis forgave bishops appointed by the CCPA for being ordained without the approval of the Holy See, which was an example of his policy of dialogue with Beijing.
When asked how the Chinese government would react to the election of a cardinal from Hong Kong as pope, we can answer that it would be a very difficult scenario for them because they would face an unprecedented situation. While it could be a milestone in relations with the Vatican, for Beijing, the election of the pope is more of a political issue than a spiritual one. The key question is whether the future pope would support the policies and position of the People's Republic of China on the international stage.
If it were convenient for the Chinese government, it could consider him a Chinese candidate; this would undoubtedly be a milestone in relations with the Vatican. At the same time, it should be remembered that for the Chinese government, the election of the pope is more of a political issue than a spiritual one. More important than the recognition of the 'Hong Kong cardinal' currently are the issues of Taiwan, which the Vatican recognizes as an independent state, as well as China's relations with the U.S. The nationality of the future pope takes a backseat because the key factor is whether he would support the policies and positions of the People's Republic of China on the international stage.
