Harris holds a narrow lead as key states show a statistical tie
According to the latest polls by the "New York Times" and Siena College, accessed by the Polish Press Agency, Kamala Harris is leading in four out of seven key electoral states. Donald Trump is winning in two, and in Pennsylvania, both candidates have equal support. Meanwhile, a nationwide NBC poll indicates a tie between the candidates.
9:34 AM EST, November 4, 2024
The latest surveys show that Harris is ahead of Trump by 3 percentage points in Nevada (6 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), and Wisconsin (11). In Georgia (16), her lead is one point.
Trump, on the other hand, is leading by four points in Arizona (11) and one in Michigan (15). In Pennsylvania (19), the competition is so close that neither candidate has gained an advantage.
Expert analyses suggest that if the poll results directly translated into election results, Harris would receive 280 electoral votes—10 more than the required 270—securing her victory regardless of the outcome in Pennsylvania. However, it should be noted that the differences between the candidates, except for Arizona, are within the margin of statistical error.
Nate Cohn, chief analyst at the "New York Times," points to a favorable trend for Harris in the southern "sunbelt" states (North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona), which traditionally lean Republican.
At the same time, Trump is strengthening his position in the northern industrial "rust belt" states.
The polls also indicate that 40% of respondents in these states have already voted early, and among them, Harris leads by a margin of 8 percentage points. Furthermore, 58% of voters who decided on their support only in recent days declared support for the Democratic candidate.
Further polls from the USA: statistical tie
Other published surveys also confirm the competitive nature of the race, with a slight lead for Harris. A nationwide survey by Heart Research Associates for NBC and Emerson College indicates a tie (49% to 49%), while an Ipsos poll for ABC News gives Harris a three-point lead.
The averages from recent surveys emphasize that two days before the election, there is a statistical tie. On a national scale, Harris leads by 1 percentage point, and in six out of the seven key states, the differences between the candidates are less than 1 point.
