Germany braces for Trump's return as Biden support wavers

At the convention in Milwaukee, the Republican Party officially announced Trump as the presidential candidate, which was met with applause from his supporters.

Since the unsuccessfully attempted assassination of Donald Trump, the Republican's popularity has significantly increased.

Most German politicians, however, still count on Joe Biden's reelection as the president of the USA, with whom they are much closer politically. At the same time, they are already preparing for Trump's return, reports the dw.com portal.

Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, at the June G7 summit in Italy, indicated that he would prefer Joe Biden to serve a second term.

Jens Spahn of the largest German opposition party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the main ruling party in Berlin during Trump's presidency from 2016-2020, believes it is a mistake, quoted by the dw.com service.

In his opinion, German politicians should act differently with Trump: "I think Trump will very likely be the next president of the US. We shouldn't make the same mistake we did during his last presidency. Back then, no one had a network of contacts with Trump's team. This time we should know beforehand and build up contacts with him and his team. That's why it's important to be here," he said.

In Germany, there are also concerns about cooperation with J.D. Vance, a potential future vice president. These concerns are justified in the context of his lack of willingness to support Ukraine.

Let's recall that Vance said in a podcast in 2022: "I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another."

Meanwhile, Christoph Heusgen, head of the Munich Security Conference, recently told Reuters that Vance clearly stated his position in Munich: "The US would set different priorities. Europe would have to take care of its own defense and also take on most of the burden of supporting Ukraine," he said.

"But the problem is that Germany and Europe are much more vulnerable today than they were in 2016 because Russia is not only threatening Ukraine, but the whole of Europe, and Europe is still very dependent on the US in terms of security policy," points out Dr. Dominik Tolksdorf of the German Council on Foreign Relations.

CDU politician Jens Spahn, however, believes that Trump's victory is a wake-up call for Europeans to finally "grow up." "The United States is our most important ally. They are the ones who guarantee security in Europe. The truth is that without the USA, Europe cannot be secure – this counts for today, and this counts for the foreseeable time. Therefore, we need the US as our partner, no matter, who the president is," he assessed.

Michael Link, from the co-governing FDP party, on the other hand, believes that the biggest challenge at the moment is the former president's unpredictability.

– No one can say for sure which parts of his political program Trump would implement in a second term. We must therefore strengthen our own ability to act. That goes for the European Union above all – he assesses.

Germany is already implementing a shift in its defense spending policies. Recently, it significantly increased its military budget. It also plans to engage in more significant activity in the transatlantic alliance.

At the same time, they expect that Trump, after his possible victory, will focus more on bilateral relations and new "deals" instead of existing alliances and coalitions.

For this reason, political scientist Dr. Dominik Tolksdorf warns about the deterioration of relations between Europe and the USA after Trump's potential return.

"Relations would significantly cool down, but we still need to find ways to maintain relatively constructive relations," he assesses.

Meanwhile, Michael Link offers some reassurance. In his opinion, even if Donald Trump is re-elected, despite his "America First" rhetoric, he will realize that the USA will still depend on its allies, e.g., in its policy towards China. In this context, the USA and the EU will cooperate instead of competing.