German political crisis deepens amid Trump's election win
Shortly after Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election was announced, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed the finance minister, the leader of the coalition FDP. Experts are assessing whether the coalition's breakup and the potential for early elections will affect the largest economy in the European Union.
"The idea that Trump views Olaf Scholz as strong at home and on the international stage can be ruled out. If there is still any reason to quickly end this coalition monster, it is Trump's triumph," summarized the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung."
Germany: "Lack of contacts with Trump's camp will backfire."
There is currently great uncertainty in Germany regarding the election calendar. Elections should take place in March (if Scholz does not receive a vote of confidence in January), says Kamil Frymark, an expert from the Center for Eastern Studies, to money.pl. In his opinion, the chancellor chosen in the new elections will likely come from the Christian Democratic Union. The main point of contention in the current government is budgetary issues. It is difficult to predict how the German economy will react further, the OSW analyst tells us.
In the context of the U.S. elections and Americans' choice of Donald Trump, Frymark assesses that the new German authorities "will have to answer how to do their homework." Henning Hoff from the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) puts it bluntly. In an interview with Deutsche Welle, he admits that the mistake of Scholz's team was "total support (in the campaign) for the Democrats."
The special relationship that the chancellor nurtured with President Biden may have been too one-sided. The lack of contact with Trump's camp will now backfire, assesses Hoff.
Turmoil in Germany, felt by the economy
Germany is moving towards early elections. The lack of a vote of confidence would allow President Steinmeier to dissolve the Bundestag and call early elections - the German constitution does not provide for any other procedure in this matter, notes Łukasz Jasiński, an analyst from the Polish Institute of International Affairs.
He adds that economic issues also cast a shadow on the coalition crisis: Stagnation, a sense of uncertainty, and a crisis in the automotive sector (the Volkswagen car company is considering closing three factories in the country and reducing the workforce by 15,000 people). It is said that if Volkswagen feels it, then the entire German economy feels it too.
The Scholz government has been struggling with increasing criticism virtually from its inception. External factors played a role—the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine occurred several weeks into Scholz's tenure as chancellor. "Deutsche Welle" also highlights internal problems of recent weeks: new legislation on switching home heating systems from fossil fuels to renewable energy, new citizen's income, and changes in immigration laws. This discouraged further voters. "The coalition has become the most unpopular government in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany," it reads.
September's elections to regional parliaments in eastern Germany ended in disaster for the coalition. The press notes that the ruling parties at the federal level never performed so poorly. The SPD, Greens, and FDP suffered defeat in Thuringia and Saxony. After these elections, the leader of the coalition FDP, who was also the finance minister, issued an ultimatum and, in October, constructed a "list of demands, practically condemning the entire economic and financial policy of the coalition." In the opinion of the SPD and Greens, Linder tried to force the chancellor to resign. However, on Wednesday, November 7, Scholz dismissed Linder.
Bartłomiej Chudy, journalist money.pl
