German intelligence warns of Russian strategy to test NATO unity

The military confrontation appears to be an increasingly plausible option for the Kremlin, according to remarks made by Kahl at an event hosted by the German Council on Foreign Relations, as reported by the "Zeit" weekly portal. He suggested that by the end of the decade, Russia's military might be sufficiently equipped and staffed to attack Western nations.

Kahl cautioned that a large-scale attack on NATO's European countries is unlikely. Instead, Russia might attempt to undermine the obligation of assistance specified in the North Atlantic Treaty, which could lead to the collapse of the Western alliance, according to the report.

Referring to BND assessments, Kahl noted that high-ranking Russian government representatives have doubts about whether "this goal would be reached if Article 5 were to remain without effect in case of a Russian attack." He clarified that Russia has no indication of concrete war intentions at present.

"But if such views gain ground in the government headquarters in Moscow, the risk of a military confrontation also grows in the coming years," he explained.

As a potential scenario, Kahl mentioned a limited intervention involving "little green men" in the Baltic countries under the pretext of protecting the Russian minority. He stated that Russia aims for NATO's failure as a defensive alliance: "In Russia's view, this goal would be reached if Article 5 were to remain without effect in case of a Russian attack."

Kahl also indicated that Russia will try to divide NATO before a possible outbreak of war. This could occur, for instance, if Russia persuades individual member states of the Alliance to align with it. Vladimir Putin "will continue to test the West's red lines and further escalate the confrontation," the BND chief asserted.