Georgia's election turmoil: Protests ignite over alleged fraud
Observers of the Georgian elections are identifying irregularities. The country's president is calling for protests, and support is pouring in from many parts of the world. However, troubling signals are also emerging from Tbilisi related to the weakness of the opposition. According to Georgian political scientist Prof. Grigol Julukhidze, this does not entirely distance his country from its European aspirations. "I don't think this is the end," he commented in an interview.
4:48 PM EDT, October 28, 2024
According to data presented by the Georgian Central Election Commission, Saturday's elections were won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, which has been in power since 2012 and is accused of pro-Russian sympathies. The opposition and the president did not recognize the official results. Julian Bulai, head of the delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, reported that observers noted instances of vote-buying. He emphasized that the political climate was conducive to voter intimidation, especially in rural areas.
Grigol Julukhidze, a Georgian political scientist collaborating with Jagiellonian University, does not yet conclusively assert this, but he believes the elections in his country may indeed have been rigged.
"The results look unrealistic. Georgian Dream received more support than they did in 2012 and 2016 when their position was truly at its peak. If we look at the last two years in Georgia, we can see it was the largest regression in terms of democracy. Bilateral relations with the United States, the European Union, and NATO have been damaged. Of course, Georgians viewed this very negatively. This was evident in various public opinion surveys, and suddenly it turns out Georgian Dream received almost 60 percent of the votes. It all looks incredible," emphasized Grigol Julukhidze in an interview.
Julukhidze: A potential scenario of political crisis
The political scientist, currently in Tbilisi, highlights the constitutional problem that may arise for Georgian Dream. This issue stems from the fact that some opposition politicians have already announced that they will not take over their mandates.
"Georgian Dream needs 100 deputies (in a 150-member parliament) to start functioning. And they only have 89 mandates. The opposition already expresses reluctance to cooperate with them due to alleged fraud. The president also does not intend to sign approval for the formation of a new parliament, and it seems that potentially there is a chance of a political crisis, which may lead to another round of early parliamentary elections," Julukhidze states.
But the ruling side seems confident. Commenting on the opposition's announcements, Mamuka Mdinaradze, secretary of Georgian Dream, stated that if the opposition does not enter parliament, there will at least be a normal working environment and no "sabotage by agents."
"I have heard that the parliamentarians of Georgian Dream are counting on eventually finding common ground with the oppositionists. It might be some corrupt arrangement. Officially, of course, this cannot be stated, but someone might agree to 'better living': high pay, privileges, and status," assumes Grigol Julukhidze.
Georgia in Russia's hands? Julukhidze: "Georgian Dream has no strategy"
The country has had candidate status for the European Union since December last year. However, after parliament passed the so-called foreign agents law this year, negotiations have been halted. Many commentators emphasized that the current elections are decisive for Georgia's European future. However, according to Prof. Julukhidze, even staying in power for Georgian Dream will not mean the end of this country's European aspirations.
"I don't think it will be the end. In the event of a victory for Georgian Dream, Georgia will remain in international isolation. Georgia is not Iran or Belarus, meaning it is not a strong country that can survive without Western support from an economic point of view. It's impossible. Georgians travel a lot, work in Europe. We have significant financial support from the European Union and the United States. Without this, the country faces inflation, and the Georgian economy will be under significant pressure. It won't be able to survive, as it has, without Western support," believes Grigol Julukhidze.
Furthermore, the political scientist points out what he sees as Russia's true intentions.
"I don't think Russia will start treating Georgia as a 'younger brother' to be financed. Russia has only one interest: to isolate Georgia from the West. I think Georgian Dream also has no strategy for developing a situation where Georgia would be under direct sanctions from the West. That's why I don't think this is the end," considers Prof. Julukhidze.
The President of Georgia asks for help
On Sunday, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili appealed for direct assistance to world leaders.
"I call on our international partners to protect Georgia by siding with the people, not the illegal government. Just as you opposed the Russian law, we ask you to stand with us again. These elections are illegal and nothing can change that," Zurabishvili appealed on the X portal.
"This is an appeal to partners not to recognize the election results and to deem them fraudulent. And then to act harshly and severely against Georgian Dream, that is, to impose high-level isolation, and suspend any meetings. Note who congratulated the ruling party on their victory: only Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Armenia's Nikol Pashinyan," observes Grigol Julukhidze.
Expressions of support for the Georgian opposition are already coming in. On Monday, Andrzej Duda announced a phone conversation with President Zurabishvili. "We discussed the deeply troubling situation in Georgia following the recent parliamentary elections. I reaffirmed Poland's unwavering support for the Euro-Atlantic aspirations of the Georgian people," informed the President of Poland.
Julukhidze: The opposition in Georgia is very weak
The President of Georgia also called for a demonstration in Tbilisi on Monday evening. Regardless of how many people participated, what's noteworthy is that on Saturday evening, the day the election results were announced, there were hardly any opposition supporters visible on the streets of Tbilisi.
"In Georgia, there is currently a very unexpected silence. I didn't think it would be this quiet," admitted Prof. Grigol Julukhidze on Monday morning.
He added that the logic of Georgian society needs to be understood. "The opposition in Georgia is very weak, lacks a single leader, and Georgians have always needed leaders to achieve important political goals. And 85 percent of current politicians are from the old, bankrupt political class. Therefore, it is very difficult to expect the society to follow them," notes Julukhidze. He admits that the President of Georgia is not seen as a clear opposition leader.
In a conversation with WP on Saturday evening, Polish journalist Stasia Budzich noted that the opposition was not visible at all in areas beyond Tbilisi in Georgia.
The Georgian political scientist confirms her words. "In my committee located in central Tbilisi, the opposition won," Julukhidze says. "But Georgia is not just Tbilisi, universities, and think tanks. I always said: go to the regions, where people are susceptible to Russian influences and believe in conspiracy theories. It's the opposition's fault they didn't do that."
