Future of Ukraine: Facing a tough winter and uncertain aid

According to "Spiegel," as cited by Belsat, the upcoming third winter of the war will be the hardest for Ukraine. The main reason is that Kyiv's resources are depleting much faster than Russia's. Another concern is Ukraine's dependence on aid from the West, particularly the United States.

The support available if Donald Trump returns to the presidency is uncertain. He has promised to "end the war in 24 hours," though this likely implies territorial losses for Ukraine. However, even a victory for Kamala Harris may also indicate a gradual withdrawal of American aid.

The initial enthusiasm over the Ukrainian army's progress in the Kursk region has waned. This is especially true as the Russians maintain the initiative on the front and advance on Pokrovsk, aiming to control the entire Donbas region. As a result, the mood in Ukraine is deteriorating.

For the first time since the Russian invasion in February 2022, "Der Spiegel" reports that discussions in the Ukrainian capital are considering scenarios in which Ukraine temporarily relinquishes the goal of fully reclaiming occupied territories, which make up nearly 20% of its area. A high-ranking Ukrainian official has confirmed this information.

We believed that victory must mean the unconditional surrender of Putin's Russia. The agreement must also be beneficial for Russia, admits the official in an interview with the German weekly.

"Spiegel" highlights that the war has resulted in the loss of about 80,000 Ukrainians and 200,000 Russians. These casualties are more painful for Kyiv. Ukraine is devastated by military actions, and several million of its inhabitants have left the country. The divorce rate is high, and the birth rate is low. The country is simply "bleeding out."

Support for continuing the fight is declining. According to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the percentage of people willing to persevere in the liberation struggle as long as necessary fell from 72% to 63% between May and September. Among younger generations, the willingness to compromise is increasing.

Nonetheless, some factions in Ukraine refuse to consider talks with Putin. According to some, Ukraine will remain under threat even with a truce.

The enemy will not stop, regardless of political agreements. There might be a break for three or four years, after which everything will continue, believes Ukrainian officer Andriy Nazarenko.