French far‑right surges: Exit polls show Le Pen's party near majority
The first round of parliamentary elections in France brings one of the right-wing groups closer to victory. Exit polls indicate a potential majority for Marine Le Pen's National Rally, which could change the country's political landscape. A change in the retirement age is also on the table.
7:23 AM EDT, July 1, 2024
The polling results of the first round of the French parliamentary elections surprised many observers. According to exit polls, the National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, garnered between 33 and 34.2 percent of the votes. This result could translate into a significant number of seats in the 577-member National Assembly.
In second place was the New Popular Front, a coalition of leftist parties, with support ranging from 28.1 to 29.6 percent of the votes. President Emmanuel Macron's party, Renaissance, and centrist allies had to settle for third place, securing between 20.7 and 22.4 percent of the votes. Traditional right-wing parties, including Republicans, collectively garnered around 10 percent support. Analysts from PKO BP commented on the voting results in their morning report.
Le Pen could have an absolute majority
Preliminary estimates regarding the distribution of seats in parliament indicate that the National Rally could secure between 230 and 305 seats. This result could give Le Pen's party an absolute majority, which requires 289 seats. The presidential coalition can expect a significantly smaller representation, from 60 to 125 seats, while the New Popular Front could introduce between 120 and 200 deputies to parliament.
It's worth noting that the National Rally's result, although lower than recent polls predicted (about 36 percent), is better than the 31.4 percent achieved by the party in the last European Parliament elections. This year's parliamentary polls attracted 67.7 percent of eligible voters, marking the highest turnout since 1997.
The electoral system in France is based on single-member constituencies, which means that, in many cases, a second round of voting will be necessary. In some constituencies, up to three candidates may advance to the second round, making it much harder to predict the final outcomes. As noted by PKO BP analysts, an additional complicating factor is the possibility of vote transfers between parties.
President Macron's parties and the New Popular Front have already announced that in constituencies where their candidates placed third, they will withdraw from the second round. This is aimed at uniting forces against the candidates of the National Rally. This strategy could significantly impact the final distribution of seats in parliament.
Retirement age to change? Key reform at risk
If Marine Le Pen's party secures an absolute majority, Jordan Bardella is expected to be nominated for the position of Prime Minister. The National Rally promises an ambitious, albeit controversial, program. The main proposals are reversing the pension reform, tightening immigration policies, increasing social spending, and cutting taxes. However, implementing these promises raises many doubts among economists and political analysts.
The second round of French parliamentary elections will take place next Sunday. The results could be crucial for the country's political future and the direction of French politics in the coming years.
