French far‑right leads as parliamentary election nears

In two days, the French will cast their votes in parliamentary elections. The Ifop survey predicts a record-high turnout of 67%, nearly 20 percentage points higher than in the 2022 elections. The far-right National Rally (RN) is leading in the polls with 36.5% support.

The study, conducted by the Ifop center on behalf of the daily "Le Figaro," TV station LCI, and Sud Radio, which monitors daily voter preferences, was published on Friday afternoon, the last day of campaigning before the first round of elections.

According to forecasts, RN can count on 36.5% of the votes. This means that the party, which enjoys the support of part of the right-wing Republicans (LR), has a chance to win between 225 and 265 seats. RN, formerly known as the National Front under the leadership of Marine Le Pen, is now closer than ever to gaining an absolute majority in parliament (289 seats) in the second round of elections, which will take place on July 7, according to predictions by the daily "Le Figaro".

It's worth noting that support for RN is growing; the party has gained 2.5 percentage points in the polls over the last week.

On the other hand, support for the left-wing alliance, which is running in the elections as the New People's Front (NFP), remains unchanged at 29%. Such a result will allow the left to obtain between 170 and 200 seats. Among the parties forming this alliance, the far-left Unsubmissive France (LFI) has a chance to receive the most seats - 90.

The centrist party of President Emmanuel Macron, Renaissance, along with its allies, can count on 70-100 seats in parliament. Support for this political force fell by 0.5 percentage points over the week, to 20.5%.

In fourth place is the part of LR that did not decide to ally with Le Pen. With 7% of the votes, it might win between 30 and 60 seats in the National Assembly.

Other results, albeit still showing the dominant position of the far right, were brought by two other surveys published on Friday.

35% for RN, 27.5% for the left, and 21% for Macron’s camp were the results of the survey conducted by the Odoxa center for the weekly "Le Nouvel Obs". The projection of the number of seats indicates that RN may win between 265 and 305 seats, giving it a chance for an absolute majority.

Similar results were produced by a poll for the weekly "Challenges," conducted by Toluna/Harris Interactive. This survey also allows for the possibility of RN gaining an absolute majority with the support of part of the Republicans. RN alone can count on 220-260 seats, and an additional 20-35 seats could be secured by former Republican leader Eric Ciotti (excluded by the party leadership for supporting RN) and his supporters. If the maximum forecasts are confirmed, the far-right along with Ciotti will exceed the threshold of 289 seats; they will have 290, and in the least favorable scenario for them, they will have 240 seats. This is a solid relative majority, allowing RN to propose a prime minister, emphasizes the weekly "Challenges".