France's elections could destabilize European Union, financial experts warn

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, warned that "Our Europe is mortal, it can die." Still, shortly after, he led his country to early elections that could "plunge the entire EU into a potentially mortal crisis," writes Gideon Rachman, the chief foreign affairs commentator for the Financial Times.

A few days before the parliamentary elections in France, the far-right National Rally (RN), formerly the National Front led by Marine Le Pen, is decidedly leading in the polls, with the People's Front coalition, dominated by the radical left, in second place. In the best case, a parliament controlled by extreme parties could destabilize France for a long time, assesses the columnist.

In the worst-case scenario, it could lead to the adoption of an extravagant budget and a nationalist policy that would quickly lead to an economic and social crisis, which would very quickly become a problem for the entire EU. Rachman writes that France's fiscal problems are the first mechanism that would lead to a crisis in the EU, and the second is diplomatic problems.

France is in serious financial trouble. The public debt is 110% of GDP, and the budget deficit reached 5.5% last year. Meanwhile, the author explains that both the far right and the radical left have committed in their election campaigns to significantly increasing spending and cutting taxes, which will increase the national debt and deficit while breaking EU rules.

French Finance and Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire recently warned that the economic program of extreme political groups threatens a financial crisis so severe that it could lead to France being overseen by the International Monetary Fund, Rachman reminds.

When Greece fell into a debt crisis, the humbling lesson that led it to approve the remedial measures imposed by the EU was the risk of being kicked out of the eurozone. However, the commentator reminds us that attempting to discipline France in a similar way would be unthinkable: after all, since the 1950s, the entire Community project has been built around the French-German tandem.

Thus, France will remain in the monetary union but will be a source of its problems, which could have a disastrous impact on the cohesion and stability of the eurozone at a time when the Union must close ranks due to Russia's threat, warns the author.

Worse still, if the National Rally comes to power, its first reaction could be a confrontation with Brussels "in the name of French sovereignty," and the economic crisis could trigger even more belligerent and nationalist sentiments, the columnist continues.

The first round of parliamentary elections in France will take place next week on June 30 and the second on July 7.