France steps up: A new intelligence ally for Ukraine

On March 3, an Ariane 6 rocket was launched from the Guiana Space Centre. Europe's hope for a return to the space race did not disappoint this time. The launch vehicle completed its task without any problems during its first commercial flight, placing a 7,700-pound payload in the form of the French CSO-3 spy satellite into orbit.

The satellite, providing image reconnaissance of the Earth's surface, joined its two predecessors—satellites CSO-1 and CSO-2. The French constellation was developed as a result of the international MUSIS (Multinational Space-based Imaging System) program, although the project and equipment execution, as well as oversight of the entire mission, were French.

The French agency DGA (Direction Générale de l’Armement) is responsible for the MUSIS program, contracting the technical matters to the French national space agency CNES (Centre National d'Études Spatiales).

France, which hosts the headquarters of the international company Arianespace, also manufactures space launch vehicles and possesses its own spaceport in French Guiana, excellently located near the Earth's equator.

As a result, Paris has strong assets: in terms of strategic space reconnaissance, it is completely independent, controlling both the design and construction process of spy equipment, as well as its transportation and deployment into space.

This significantly supplements other key capabilities related to Paris's strategic sovereignty in the control of its own nuclear arsenal. This includes ASMP cruise missiles and M51 ballistic missiles, developed and built in France, while the United Kingdom has relied on American Trident missiles for its nuclear deterrence.

The effects of Donald Trump's decision to cut off Ukraine from American intelligence data are undoubtedly severe. This action not only signifies an embargo on data collected by the Pentagon but also on information shared by the United Kingdom.

This is a result of the informal alliance known as the "Five Eyes", linking Anglo-Saxon countries that were once British colonies. The community includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

Moreover, Trump did not limit himself to cutting Ukraine off from military-collected data. At his command, Kyiv also lost access to commercial satellite images offered by the American company Maxar Technologies.

It's a precise and painful blow. Although Ukraine currently leads the world, including the United States, in tactical reconnaissance largely conducted by various drones, its ability to conduct reconnaissance at a higher, strategic level is limited.

The size of the American constellation is crucial in this case. NATO has a total of about 300 satellites with different purposes and capabilities. Out of this number, approximately 250 are American satellites, and a large number of orbital "spies" translates into the frequency with which they can visit different parts of the world.

The more satellites there are, the more frequent the visits, and the more up-to-date the data. While this is not essential for static targets like ports or airports, it becomes vitally significant for mobile targets like a transport arriving at a train station, an air defense system taking position, or a ship docking at a port. Or the cruiser Moscow entering—to its doom—the range of missiles launched from the Ukrainian coast.

Aside from the 250 American satellites, the rest of NATO controls about 50, of which 15 are French satellites. Alongside the three CSO optical reconnaissance satellites, there are, among others, three CERES satellites responsible for electronic intelligence. Ukraine also has constant access to data obtained by commercial satellites owned by companies outside the USA, such as the ICEYE constellation.

In addition to space reconnaissance data, those gathered at a lower level—such as through early warning aircraft—also hold value.

France has four E-3 Sentry aircraft operating independently of 14 NATO AWACS. Paris is also building capabilities in aerial electronic reconnaissance—it has ordered SIGINT aircraft built using French Dassault Falcon 8X aircraft.

Although French capabilities are much more modest than American ones in terms of the number of satellites or aircraft, France has maintained complete sovereignty in conducting reconnaissance. It not only operates appropriate equipment but also controls its design, construction, and deployment into service.

As a result, Paris can not only freely use the obtained data but also—if deemed necessary—share it with its partners independently of the US president's decisions. For Ukraine, this is very good news.