Former Finnish intel chief says Ukraine's Kursk op aims to humiliate Putin

General Toveri believes that Ukraine may want to show Western allies that the war will not unfold according to the will of the Russians.

"There is a broad discussion about the objectives of the Kursk operation in Ukraine. There are certainly many reasons, and it is difficult to say which is the most important. At a political-strategic level, the operation likely aimed to humiliate Putin, provoke war with the Russians, and boost the morale of their own nation."

"Ukraine is still capable of fighting, and it is worth supporting them because it will make a difference. At the same time, we probably also want to show that we don't need to fear Putin's statements about escalation," we read on platform X.

The expert believes the Biden administration was probably not informed about this operation. "Or maybe it was also a signal to the Biden administration, which has supported Ukraine but often within the limits set by Putin, who set restrictions on the use of weapons and Ukrainian actions," the article states.

Some assess this as an attempt to obtain "bargaining material" for negotiations with Russia by occupying Russian territories. "I really can't believe it. Ukraine is likely unable to maintain large areas for a long time. That would tie up too many soldiers," he comments.

It is estimated that at an operational level, this could force Russia to stop attacks in Donbas and move troops to Kursk.

"Russia is moving troops to the region but has not yet stopped attacks in the south. Time will tell how it will unfold. This forces Russia to engage more forces in protecting its borders, which consumes its resources. Some suspect that the target was the nuclear power plant in the Kursk region. That is too far, and Ukraine likely does not want to engage in dangerous nuclear blackmail, like Russia," assesses the expert.

Could the Ukrainian operation also involve cutting off rail and road connections for Russian forces towards Belgorod and Donbas?

"I don't believe that either. Only capturing Kursk would present greater challenges, which would not hinder maintaining the southern direction, even if travel was slightly longer. Ukraine has taken the operational initiative and, after many months of a break, forces Russia to react to their actions. Maintaining initiative is always an advantage as long as it does not consume too many of our own resources. A well-planned operation could be costly for Russia," assesses the former Finnish intelligence chief.

According to the military, Ukraine, at a tactical level, can utilize a mobile situation, for instance, by striking with their own drones deep into Russia since the Russian drone defense in that area is weak.

According to some estimates, up to 70% of attacks carried out by the Russians using Iranian Shahed drones take place precisely in the Kursk region. "Now the number of attacks has clearly decreased. If so, the effect will unfortunately be temporary because launch systems are portable," assesses the general.

"In any case, a strong blow to Putin," summarizes Toveri.