F‑16s en route to Ukraine: Challenges and strategic impact
The first F-16 planes are already on their way to Ukraine, but their number is very low: Only 20 units will be delivered by the end of 2024. We present the performance of these machines and explain why the process is taking so long.
According to The Kyiv Independent, citing Bloomberg, based on data obtained from a NATO informant, Ukraine will receive six planes soon and up to 20 units by the end of 2024.
A NATO representative stated that the challenges are so significant that they have raised doubts about the justification of sending planes to Ukraine, and doing so now is not only a very costly show of support for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Three issues impede Ukraine's effective use of F-16 planes. The first is broadly defined logistics, starting with training ground crew, access to ground parts, and safe basing locations.
The second issue is access to airfields with sufficiently long runways. However, in emergencies, F-16s can operate from highway strips. The third issue is time, as Ukrainians want to complete processes that normally take 3 to 4 years in just a few months. The NATO informant noted that Ukraine could field a squadron of 15-24 planes.
F-16s for Ukraine - these are modified versions of the F-16A/B MLU from the 1990s
The Mid-Life Update modernization mainly involved integrating the aircraft with AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles, which range about 62 miles or more, depending on the version. Additionally, a radar was installed to enable their effective use.
Additional changes have likely been introduced for the versions of the planes intended for Ukraine. It can be assumed that if the F-16s have been or are being integrated with unique weapons, such as the French AASM Hammer bombs, they will also have other additions. One of those is likely the AN/ASQ-213 HTS targeting pods or similar, which enable the full utilization of anti-radiation missiles AGM-88 HARM or precision bombs JDAM-ER and Paveway.
Despite concerns from NATO representatives, the F-16s will significantly boost the Ukrainian air force, which currently has a handful of operational MiG-29, Su-27, and Su-24 planes. A pilot who can fly anything is better than one who cannot fly anything at all.
For example, the F-16s will be able to relieve Ukrainian air defense by hunting down Russian cruise missiles or drones over the western part of the country. They will also be able to more effectively utilize weapons such as AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missiles or Western-guided bombs.
