F‑16 jets could bolster Ukraine's defense but not shift the war outcome

Jarosław Wolski, a defense analyst, commented on the upcoming debut of F-16 fighters in Ukraine. According to the Polish expert, these Western aircraft will significantly aid the Ukrainian army in its fight against Russian forces. Still, they will not turn the tide of the ongoing war. This is not due to the capabilities or equipment of the F-16 but rather other factors.

In 2023, countries aiding Ukraine formed a coalition to supply it with F-16 fighters. Though several dozen planes have been allocated, they will reach the front gradually in small batches of a few up to a dozen at most. This gradual deployment will not surprise the Russians or deplete their resources.

"Will this be a breakthrough? Unfortunately, that is not the case. If suddenly, around 40 F-16s and 6-8 promised Mirage 2000s appeared over Ukraine, we could maybe talk about a dramatic change in the situation. Unfortunately, it seems that new aircraft will appear in quantities of 6-12-18 in batches over a longer period. [...] New machines will likely first relieve air defense in western Ukraine and allow for its partial relocation to eastern and northern Ukraine. Secondly, they will serve as carriers of stand-off armaments from the West. This will improve the situation for Ukrainians, but I wouldn't expect a breakthrough," Jarosław Wolski wrote on his profile on the X platform.

The F-16 is the most popular combat aircraft in the world, capable of reaching speeds of up to Mach 2 or over 1,300 mph. It remains a key asset for many countries, including NATO members. It is standardly equipped with a six-barreled M61 Vulcan 20 mm gun. Still, from the Ukrainian perspective, an important feature of the F-16 is its ability to carry various mounted weapons.

It has already been confirmed that the F-16s prepared for Ukraine by Belgium are compatible, among other things, with AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles. These are air-to-air missiles with an active radar guidance system. Depending on the version, their range varies from approximately 60 to 100 miles.

Jarosław Wolski also pointed out the time-consuming and demanding nature of training pilots to operate the F-16s. Although there have been reports from the West that Ukrainians are performing well, they "will be after an extremely short learning period." Consequently, the potential losses of the fighters and their pilots could be very costly for the Ukrainian army.