Ex‑Trump advisor Keith Kellogg outlines multi-tiered vision for future of NATO

Kellogg laid out a future vision for NATO where a member who fails to contribute 2 percent of its gross domestic product to defense would lose the Alliance's protection under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

"Where I'm from, alliances matter. However, if you're part of an alliance, you should contribute and be genuinely involved, " Kellogg shared.

Kellogg didn't reveal whether he had conversed about this with Trump, though he did caution that they often contemplated the future of NATO. He mentioned that if Trump emerges victorious in this year's U.S. election, a NATO summit may be proposed in June 2025 to contemplate the Alliance's path forward.

Kellogg stressed that NATO could then evolve into a "multi-tiered alliance" where some members receive more protection based on their adherence to the founding articles of NATO.

According to Kellogg, other less grave sanctions, beyond losing protection, may be possible, such as losing access to training or joint equipment resources. "If President Trump gets re-elected, I'll issue a kind of heads up to everyone after the elections. I'm positive that these mature discussions will form part of the many discussions on national security that need to occur," he stated.

Kellogg also said that if Article 3 of the North Atlantic Treaty is ignored, the protection offered under Article 5 should not be considered as automatic. Article 3 stipulates that NATO member states need to make suitable efforts to develop their individual defense capabilities. Though it doesn't demand that countries expend at least 2 percent of their GDP on defense, NATO nations agreed in 2014 to aim for this figure within a decade.

As pointed out by Reuters, based on July's NATO estimates from the preceding year, 11 of 31 NATO countries will hit this goal by 2023, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and various Eastern European countries near or bordering Russia.

"Everyone gets Article 5 — 'an attack on one is an attack on all', but some overlook the other articles that sit above or below it. One of these is Article 3," Kellogg stressed.

On Saturday, Donald Trump said that, if re-elected as U.S. President, he would refuse to defend NATO countries who are in arrears, going as far as to "encourage" Russia to attack them. At an election rally in South Carolina, he narrated a conversation with a NATO state head, without revealing their identity.

"A president of a large country asked me, 'Well, sir, if we don't make payment and Russia attacks us, would you come to our aid?' My reply was, 'No, I wouldn't protect you. In fact, I'd encourage them (Russia) to act as they see fit. You need to pay up,'" he stated.