Europe's missile alliance: New long-range precision strike plan unveiled

Recently, the governments of France, Germany, and Poland announced a plan to develop long-range, precision-guided missiles jointly. This initiative stemmed from noticeable shortcomings during discussions about transferring weapons to Ukraine. The planned land-based missile, with a range of over 600 miles, is set to be the first of its kind in the European arsenal.

After the Russian attack on Ukraine, France, in cooperation with the United Kingdom, provided Storm Shadow missiles. However, Germany decided against transferring Taurus missiles due to their poor technical condition. Poland did not consider the transfer of such weapons at all, as it only possessed a few dozen air-launched JASSM missiles.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that the absence of such weapons represents a significant gap in European capabilities. Eventually, the number of countries involved in the missile acquisition program is expected to grow, with the signing of a letter of intent anticipated during the next NATO summit in Washington, D.C. (July 9-11). The program aims to lead to the long-term development of the ELSA (European Long Strike Approach) system.

Of course, such missiles need to be developed and produced first. The consortium leader is likely to be European firm MBDA, which presented a new product at the Eurosatory exhibition in Paris: the LCM (Land Cruise Missile) ground-to-ground cruise missile. This would be another missile in the family developed by MBDA France, which already includes the naval cruise missile NCM (MdCN) and the air-launched Storm Shadow (SCALP-EG), which was successfully used in Ukraine.

The LCM is expected to engage targets with meter-level precision, which means pinpoint accuracy with a warhead weighing 550-660 pounds (or even heavier). The range is expected to be substantial, enabling operations at the operational-strategic level. Unofficially, it is said to have a range of over 600 miles. A reduced radar signature and the option for low-altitude profile flight would ensure the missile's survivability. Like the NCM, the LCM is intended for synchronized attacks on a single target using multiple missiles (STOT, synchronized time-on-target). Ultimately, MBDA plans to offer interested countries' land forces a complete system consisting of a mission planning package, mobile launchers, and missiles.

Furthermore, a similar initiative is being carried out by MBDA, Safran, Thales, and ArianeGroup within the LRU (Lance-roquettes unitaires, unified rocket launchers) program. This work is expected to result in the development of ballistic or aero-ballistic missiles with a range of 300 miles or more. Such a missile would, in the future, be one of the tools for the French successor to the M270A1 launcher and the MLRS/ATACMS system in the French land forces.

Meanwhile, a consortium of Kongsberg, Diehl Defence, and MBDA Germany is set to develop the hypersonic 3SM Tyrfing cruise missile for Germany and Norway. Also under consideration is the delivery of a land-based variant of the NSM anti-ship missile, which would be launched from the Elbit PULS system launchers.

In both cases, Polish research and development centers and industry could provide some technical contributions. A consortium consisting of Wojskowe Zakłady Lotnicze nr 1 S.A., the Military Institute of Armament Technology, and Zakład Produkcji Specjalnej "Gamrat" Sp. z o.o. has successfully developed and tested a 24-inch diameter rocket motor using solid propellant.

In June, the second test of the motor was conducted, which could power domestically-developed aero-ballistic missiles for the Homar-K (a localized K239 Chunmoo) and Homar-A (a localized M142 GMLRS/ATACMS launcher), provided the launcher manufacturers approve. Smaller motors with a 12-inch diameter are also being prepared. Polish institutions also have some experience in aerodynamic research and micro turbojet engines. Although they are less advanced than their competitors, Warsaw does not have to be solely an importer of foreign solutions and can contribute to international programs.

Combining these capabilities could result in the relatively quick development of one or perhaps more long-range missiles. One obstacle might be the anticipated larger number of partners. At least seven countries are expected to join the ELSA program. On one hand, this will facilitate financing, but on the other, disputes over requirements and industrial contributions have led to the failure of numerous European initiatives. However, if the program succeeds, Europe will gain an independent, valuable system equivalent to the American MRC system (a land-based Tomahawk missile launcher) or the Russian Iskander-K system (with the 9M728/729 cruise missiles).

So far, Poland has expressed no interest in land-based long-range cruise missiles. While efforts have been made over the past 20 years to acquire missiles with a range greater than a few dozen miles, their effectiveness has been moderate until recently. Since the "Polish Fangs" program during the tenure of Tomasz Siemoniak in the Ministry of National Defense, not much has changed. Interest has been mainly limited to: aero-ballistic missiles with a range of up to 190 miles (land), cruise missiles from the JASSM family (air), and other types of cruise missiles (armament of submarines planned for purchase under the Orka program).

The first and second programs are particularly promising, as in both cases, the Polish army is interested in acquiring a substantial number of missiles. If Warsaw does not possess nuclear weapons, effective deterrence must be ensured by the mass use of long-range weapons. Both aero-ballistic missiles and JASSM have their drawbacks. The former, which Poland purchased, have a range not exceeding 190 miles. The latter, in the ER version, have a range of almost 600 miles but are limited by their carriers. The Air Force is and will remain limited in number and may not be able to dedicate a significant number of aircraft for attacks on the enemy's rear.

Therefore, land-based cruise and ballistic missiles seem to be a reasonable solution, requiring sensible planning and appropriate financing. If successful, Polish generals could gain the most valuable tool in their arsenal. However, they are likely to be relatively few and would be reserved for striking precious targets: command centers, air defense and anti-missile systems, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.