Europe's ammunition challenge: Filling the gap for Ukraine
The halt of supplies from the USA to Ukraine means that European countries must fill the gap. This is particularly important regarding ammunition, which is used in large quantities on the front every day. We'll examine whether, three years after the outbreak of full-scale war in Ukraine, Europe is able to meet this demand.
The war in Ukraine is the most significant full-scale conflict in Europe since World War II. However, its characteristics currently resemble those of World War I, enhanced by technological innovations such as precision ammunition and drones.
Ukraine can use up to 3,000-8,000 shells daily, necessitating a monthly production capacity of up to 100,000 shells. This volume was not achievable for European firms in 2022, but after three years of conflict, the situation has improved in many countries. Now, producing one million shells annually may be realistic, and according to some projections, it is possible to reach even two million by 2026.
European artillery ammunition production
In 2022, Germany produced fewer than 30,000 shells annually, but political decisions and actions by the country's largest defense company, Rheinmetall, aim to increase production to 700,000 by 2025.
However, this number also accounts for the production capacity of Rheinmetall's Denel plant in South Africa, which is restricted by a political ban from the local government on producing ammunition for Ukraine. Therefore, Rheinmetall's production volume may be somewhat less.
One of Europe's larger ammunition producers is the Nammo corporation, which has factories in Norway, Finland, and Sweden. These large factories typically produced 20,000-30,000 shells annually, but their efficiency has recently increased. For example, Nammo's factories in the Swedish city of Karlskoga doubled their production by the end of 2024, and Finland's Nammo Lapua Oy plant made similar declarations in 2023.
It is estimated that Scandinavian countries will produce 100,000 to 200,000 shells annually. Additionally, Denmark has decided to reactivate a shuttered ammunition factory.
Another potential source of ammunition for Ukraine is the French Nexter corporation, with production at the level of 50,000 shells annually and a plan to expand to 400,000 within three years. According to declarations, Kyiv can also rely on British BAE Systems factories, which aim to increase production capacity eightfold by 2026. Other possible support comes from Czech Republic and Slovakia factories, which can produce over 100,000-200,000 shells annually. Additionally, Poland's capabilities currently encompass 30,000-40,000 shells annually. Warsaw plans to increase production in the coming years, like other European countries.
Of course, expanding capabilities must be accompanied by government orders and redirecting current production toward Ukraine, as current production capabilities also serve national needs and export customers. However, some Western countries may allocate part of their strategic resources in the short term.
This is not the estimated 4 million shells annually supported by Russia, which is significantly bolstered by supplies from North Korea. However, with the use of modern 155 mm artillery systems, a significant effect can be achieved with fewer shells. Nevertheless, their delivery, especially following the withdrawal of U.S. support to Ukraine, should be increased even at the cost of temporarily weakening the defensive capabilities of some European countries.
