Europe bolsters defenses as missile threats escalate
In recent weeks, considerable information has emerged about missile systems, both those threatening Europe and those designed to defend it. Europe cannot remain defenseless, and many countries, including Poland, are advocating for the return of previously abandoned weaponry.
The Russian medium-range (MRBM) or intermediate-range (IRBM) missile Oreshnik hit what is believed to be an abandoned ballistic missile factory in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro overnight from November 20 to 21. This strike was a Russian response to the U.S. allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS aerobalistic missiles against targets on Russian territory, albeit within a limited geographical area.
A torrent of events following the Russian attack
These events led to a rapid succession of incidents: Ukrainians launched attacks on Russian targets, including the destruction of modern Russian S-400 air defense systems, likely using older, shorter-range ATACMS missiles. In retaliation, Russia, according to President Vladimir Putin, launched about 100 missiles of various types against Ukrainian targets.
The Russian president escalated his rhetoric, threatening the use of the Oreshnik. He suggested that an attack with multiple missiles could be "similar to a nuclear attack," indicating that Russia might be hesitant to use actual nuclear weapons against Ukraine, possibly fearing repercussions. Nevertheless, Russia possesses nuclear weapons, along with the hard-to-intercept Oreshnik, cruise missiles, and Iskanders. Europe does not wish to remain passive in face of this threat.
Current capabilities
Currently, Europe has limited capabilities for strikes over distances beyond 186 miles. The most significant systems include the French NCM missile and the Franco-British Storm Shadow, closely related to the NCM. However, the former is a naval missile, part of the armament of FREMM-type missile frigates and nuclear-powered Suffren-type submarines, limiting the number of missiles that can be launched simultaneously.
The missile is expected to have a range of up to 870 miles and carry a warhead weighing 551 pounds (with some sources suggesting even 661 pounds). Despite lacking a nuclear warhead, Paris considers it a strategic weapon. Similarly, the Storm Shadow missile (known in France as SCALP-EG) is an air-launched missile, deployed in Ukraine from Su-24 bombers adapted for this purpose. It has a heavier warhead (992 pounds) but a shorter range (342 miles), and uses stealth technology to enhance its covert capabilities.
The French air force also has the truly strategic ASMP-A missile. It is a component of France's nuclear deterrent capability (alongside the M51 family of naval ballistic missiles), with a range of about 311 miles and a speed of approximately three times the speed of sound. The ASMP-A is intended to devastate the enemies of France and its allies. It is carried by specially adapted multirole Rafale aircraft, whose pilots train regularly for strategic strikes.
In May this year, during an exercise in the Durandal Operation series, a successful test of the latest ASMPA-R variant (with a range of about 621 miles) was conducted. After 2035, it will be replaced by the ASN4G, which will have an even greater range and speed. Additionally, there is the German Taurus KEPT-350 missile, recently noted primarily for Berlin's refusal to supply it to Ukraine. This hard-to-detect air-launched missile, weighing 3,086 pounds (including a 1,057-pound warhead), has a range of over 311 miles and was designed to destroy bunkers and other fortified targets with its powerful MEPHISTO warhead. A common feature of these missiles is their limited availability.
The situation looks worse for ballistic missiles
The situation is even more challenging when it comes to ballistic missiles. Aside from the American ATACMS (and recently the South Korean CTM-290) with limited range, as well as the French and British SLBMs, Europe currently has none.
Ukraine was closest to deploying them, with the Luch Design Bureau developing a promising Grom-2/Sapsan ballistic missile, with a range of up to 311 miles (or 186 miles in the export version). The 1,102-pound warhead was expected to provide significant destructive power, but the Russian invasion has prevented, or at least significantly hindered, the start of serial production.
Poland is also working on technologies related to ballistic missiles, although these are likely of shorter range. Noteworthy achievements come from a consortium of Wojskowe Zakłady Lotnicze No. 1 S.A., the Military Institute of Armament Technology, and the Special Production Facility "Gamrat" Sp. z o.o. They have developed successful engines with diameters of 12 inches and 24 inches that could power these missiles, but funding is currently lacking for their development.
ELSA brings hope
The ELSA program offers hope for overcoming these limitations and developing European medium-range strike capabilities. Launched during the July NATO summit, the initiative aims to create systems capable of striking deep into enemy territory, providing European armies with a tool that could serve as a deterrent of near-strategic significance.
In the short term, the MBDA LCM missile, a land variant of the NCM missile with only minor modifications, is the likely solution. This requires the development of a land-based launcher and an entire system related to target designation, missile transportation, safe launching, logistics, and more. New missiles will be developed in the future. The program involves France (the natural leader), Italy, Germany, Poland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands.
Britain and France, with recent participation from Italy, are also jointly developing a successor to Storm Shadow missiles and Exocet and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Under the ongoing FC/ASW (Future Cruise/Anti-Ship Weapon) program, two different missiles are being developed.
The first, temporarily designated TP15, is expected to be a hard-to-detect subsonic missile for destroying ground targets, while retaining the ability to attack moving ships. A prototype has already been produced, measuring 16 feet in length.
The second missile, RJ10, will feature a ramjet engine. It will achieve high supersonic speeds and target primarily maritime targets and enemy air defenses. Its propulsion system has already been tested. Both missiles will be available in ship and aircraft versions.
Meanwhile, Germany is working with Norway on the 3SM (SuperSonic Strike Missile) Tyrfing. It is intended to complement subsequent variants of the NSM missile (also used by our Navy), surpassing it in both range (497-621 miles) and speed (2-3 times the speed of sound). It is primarily intended for Type 212CD submarines.
Additionally, France is embarking on a project for a ballistic missile with a range exceeding 621 miles, classifying it as an MRBM. This is seen as a response to the Oresznik's combat test. Although currently in the analysis phase, the French industry possesses the know-how to develop such a missile. It remains uncertain whether this program will begin and, if so, whether it will be part of the ELSA project and made available to allies. If a nuclear warhead were developed for it, it would re-establish France in the elite club of nations with a true nuclear triad.
Or maybe drones?
All the systems mentioned above are relatively expensive. Even with increased defense spending, their availability will be limited. So why not supplement these advanced future capabilities with a more budget-friendly solution? At MSPO 2024, the Polish company WB Group presented the latest and heaviest member of the Warmate family: the Warmate 50.
Essentially a light cruise missile with a combustion engine, the Warmate 50 can carry a 110-pound warhead over about 621 miles. Not every target behind enemy lines requires a heavy warhead weighing 441-1,102 pounds. Therefore, the Warmate 50 could serve as a potential mass-produced, cost-effective, yet efficient complement to more expensive, advanced, but less accessible missiles.
