Erdogan's gas ambitions: Syrian regime change opens doors
President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan could benefit most from the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria. Not only does it enhance his influence in the region, but it also allows him to pursue ambitious plans for building a major gas hub.
Since the beginning of the conflict in Syria, Turkey has supported opposition groups. President Erdogan has repeatedly criticized Russia-backed Bashar al-Assad, labeling him a butcher, murderer, and terrorist. Turkey welcomed the downfall of Assad's regime, offered assistance to the new authorities, and opened an embassy in Damascus two days later.
Unofficially, Erdogan is seen as the "gray eminence" behind the successes of the HTS army, a militant group known as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, and the Syrian National Army sponsored by Turkey in both Aleppo and the capture of Damascus.
Undoubtedly, for Ankara, the fall of the regime that ruled Syria for 24 years is an advantage. Turkey has the chance not only to strengthen its influence in the region and secure its southern border but also to collaborate with new authorities to achieve the ambitious plan of building a major gas hub.
Erdogan's great puzzle
Turkey already plays a significant role in the region. TurkStream transports approximately 494 billion cubic feet of gas through two export lines to Europe. The maximum capacity of this route is about 1,130 billion cubic feet. Turkey is also considering expanding the TANAP pipeline to deliver gas through Bulgaria to Serbia and onward to Hungary. Additionally, Ankara is developing its storage capabilities negotiating new supplies from Turkmenistan, which could flow through Turkey to Europe, and discussing LNG deliveries with the U.S.
Ankara has provided Bulgaria access to its terminals and transmission network for 13 years. It welcomed Vladimir Putin's proposal for joint participation in building a gas hub in the Black Sea. However, Ankara's ambitions are much broader. Erdogan thinks globally.
To build a global gas distribution center, Turkey needs access to new resources and connections with other important players in the market. The al-Assad regime has been an obstacle for years. In 2009, Qatar proposed funding a giant 1,100-mile-long pipeline from offshore gas fields in the Persian Gulf through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and onward to Turkey. The project collapsed two years later because Bashar al-Assad did not agree to it due to his gas dealings with Moscow and existing debts.
According to Dr. Tymon Pastucha from the Polish Institute of International Affairs, Syria's potential as a transit country can still be leveraged.
This issue will be particularly important for Turkey, which wants to become a regional energy hub. It can be assumed that it will be interested in infrastructure development and engaged in stabilizing the region. A similar remark can be made about the Persian Gulf countries, such as Iraq or Qatar, says Tymon Pastucha to money.pl.
Access to rich fields of Palmyra
The pipeline investment, estimated at at least $11 billion in the previous decade, is a serious and time-consuming endeavor, with potential profits delayed.
The development of gas infrastructure is not, however, a foregone conclusion due to the expansion of LNG, which may become more attractive than long-lasting and capital-intensive investments in pipelines. Therefore, the return to the concept of investments in new pipelines in Syria cannot be considered certain. Again, we return to political issues: how stable will the situation in Syria be to justify such investments,
Pastucha points out. However, Turkey could benefit from acquiring concessions for extraction companies from the new authorities, especially since it already has a pipeline connection with Syria through Aleppo, extending to the gas-rich fields of the Palmyra region.
According to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), the potential daily gas production from the seven gas fields around Palmyra is estimated at over 247 million cubic feet. The latest major discovery in 2021 in the Zamlat al-Mahr 1 region in Palmyra confirmed Syria's gas potential. The total underground gas reserves in this country are estimated at 10.6 trillion cubic feet (for comparison, Russia's most resource-rich country has nearly 1,695 trillion cubic feet, which is over 150 times more).
However, to benefit from these reserves, Turkey would need to invest in repairing facilities targeted in the ongoing war since 2011. Let's recall that in 2010, Syria produced about 318 billion cubic feet of gas annually, according to a report by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Game on the Mediterranean Sea
The game, however, is not only about onshore deposits. A potential agreement with Damascus regarding the exploration and exploitation of offshore deposits off the coast of Syria would allow Erdogan to make strides in the competition for access to fields with Cyprus, Greece, and Israel.
The dispute over resources located south of Cyprus fuels the Turkish-Greek conflict over the island. The fight over gas and rights to concessions has been ongoing here for over a decade (the island itself has been divided since 1974). New discoveries exacerbate it, as exploration licenses granted to companies by Cyprus overlap with those issued by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus for Turkish consortia, such as Turkish Petroleum.
In 2011, Syria planned to issue three licenses for gas exploration in its territorial waters. However, these plans were suspended due to the outbreak of the civil war.
Erdogan has already stated that he is counting on the stabilization of the situation in Syria. He has announced that if the new authorities request it, Turkey is ready to train the Syrian army. Ankara also hopes that Turkish companies will be given priority in rebuilding Syria. Turkey has taken in the largest number of refugees from this country, providing them with living conditions.
