Emmanuel Macron dissolves parliament amid far‑right surge

Jordan Bardella, a politician created by Marine Le Pen, led the far-right National Rally to victory in the French Euro elections. He might deal Emmanuel Macron another blow in the scheduled early parliamentary elections. It is possible that his appetite for power is greater than it seems to his own promoter.

Dark suit and tie, snow-white shirt. An expression of deadly seriousness on his face. Speaking to the nation on June 9, 2024, Emmanuel Macron looked as if he were at a funeral. From his point of view, it somewhat was—the French European Parliamentary elections were overwhelmingly won (ultimately 31.37%) by the far-right National Rally (RN).

"I have heard your message, your concerns, and I will not leave them unanswered. France needs a decisive majority to act in peace and harmony," said the president from the Élysée Palace. Moments later, he announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and early elections, with the first round to be held on June 30, and the second on July 7.

The presidential party Renaissance (14.60% support) reacts with disbelief. The Socialists (13.83%) scream about "stopping the fascists."

Jordan Bardella, chairman of the RN, quickly tweeted: "We are ready to create a new majority for France: I call on the French to join us."

Marine Le Pen, who created Bardella and now directs the party from behind the scenes, said, "We are ready to take power." She expected RN to seize absolute power only after the 2027 elections. Meanwhile, Macron himself might accelerate this. RN is a clear favorite in the upcoming elections. The president will still oversee defense and foreign policy if it gains a majority. However, he will lose control over domestic policy.

For the first time in over twenty years, since the presidency of Jacques Chirac, when the Prime Minister was the Socialist Lionel Jospin, cohabitation might occur. If this happens, Bardella will be the youngest prime minister in French history—he will turn 29 in September.

In the days following Macron's address, "shock" was perhaps the most commonly used word in France and Europe. The reason can be summarized in one point—RN's view of the European Union differs from Macron's in nearly every detail.

It is possible that Macron's decision to dissolve the parliament was based precisely on the French's anti-EU fear. In the last presidential elections, this earned him a victory over Marine Le Pen. However, a lot has changed in French politics since 2022.

"Frexit," withdrawal from the euro, exiting the Schengen Area—this was the predatory Le Pen before the 2017 presidential elections—the result: a loss to Macron. Leaving NATO's integrated military command, changing the EU from within, and ambiguous stances on the war in Ukraine was Le Pen’s stance in the 2022 campaign—the outcome: a loss to Macron.

After these losses, the long-time RN leader changed tactics. She used a lot of political makeup to mask the imperfections of Jordan Bardella, whom she personally appointed as the leader of her party. It worked, and now he, alongside his mentor, is the locomotive of the RN.

The year 2017 proved to be a breakthrough in his career. He was 22 years old and already had a few years of activity within the National Front (under which the National Rally operated until 2018). His greatest success was entering the regional council of Île-de-France in 2015.

After that campaign, his then-girlfriend Kelly Betesh gained more fame than Bardella. She appeared on National Front posters. On one side of the poster, she posed with her face painted in national colors with the caption: "Choose your suburb," and on the other side with a Muslim headgear with the slogan: "Vote for the front!"

The choice of the far-right party for Bardella might seem surprising—he is a descendant of Italian economic migrants. The budding politician explained that he chose the right because he saw how migrants caused the degradation of the suburbs of French cities. He referenced the Gabriel Péri neighborhood in Saint-Denis, where he grew up.

His story of a poor childhood is at odds with the fact that his father was a relatively wealthy man. Although he divorced Jordan's mother, he paid for his son's education at a good Catholic school.

In September 2017, Jordan Bardella was still reeling from an unsuccessful bid for the National Assembly, but it was then that he hit the jackpot in the political lotto. Kerridwen Chatillon, his next girlfriend and daughter of Frédéric Chatillon, a long-time friend and advisor of Marine Le Pen, helped him with this.

According to Pierre-Stéphane Fort, author of the book "Le Grand Remplaçant" ("The Great Replacement") about the "hidden face" of the new far-right idol, it was Kerridwen who first arranged a meeting between Bardella and Le Pen—she enabled him to visit the RN leader’s estate.

For him, it must have been an experience comparable to Islam’s followers' pilgrimage to Mecca. Introduced by someone from the trusted circle, he could finally speak with the politician he idolized for longer than a few moments during a campaign. He used this time to the second—in less than two weeks, Marine Le Pen announced the name of the new party spokesman. It was "Jordan Bardella."

Lightning-fast—that’s how one could describe Bardella's career acceleration after getting into Marine Le Pen's inner circle. Climbing his way through chairing the RN youth wing, he became the leader of the party's list for the European Parliament in 2019. He performed brilliantly. The far-right won over 5 million votes, narrowly surpassing Macron's supporting group.

Bardella himself turned out to be a poor MEP—in the last term, he skipped most debates, and his "yield" amounted to submitting 21 amendments. He could be excused by the fact that he was already the RN's vice-chairman, and national matters concerned him more than European ones.

The National Rally Congress, held in July 2021 in Perpignan, was officially meant to extend Marine Le Pen's leadership. That, with no competitors, was a mere formality. The actual stake was the position of the first vice-chairman. The competitors were Louis Aliot, the mayor of Perpignan, and Jordan Bardella. The fight was unequal, for although Aliot was one of the long-standing pillars of the RN and recently Marine Le Pen's life partner, her (political) heart was already beating for Bardella. On the other hand, Nolwenn Olivier's (Marine Le Pen’s niece) heart was beating for the MEP around that time (Bardella is still accused of using Nolwenn in an instrumental way, although both deny it).

Nolwenn Olivier was very close to Marine Le Pen herself. Before the 2022 presidential elections, she advised her to appear on TikTok and to change her wardrobe from dark clothes to lighter, more vibrant ones.

The party election result was predictable. In September, the young man outmatched his older, more experienced competitor and practically took over the party's leadership. That's because the RN leader suspended her chairmanship for the duration of the presidential campaign. This temporary leadership was made permanent in November 2022. Marine Le Pen decided it would be easier for her to fight for the presidency in 2027 if the RN were governed—at least officially—by someone else.

The RN congress elected Jordan Bardella (85% of the votes). Since then, French media have searched for "skeletons in the closet" of the far-right leader. The result, to put it mildly, is poor. For example, "Le Monde" reported attempts to link him with an anonymous Twitter account containing racist content. Bardella denied it, and there was a lack of solid evidence.

"Le Pen's Cyborg," "Le Pen's Golden Boy," "RN's Golden Child"—French media are vying to come up with descriptions for Jordan Bardella. Marine Le Pen herself simply calls him a "Heavenly Gift." And from her perspective, that's probably how it looks.

That she invested politically and financially in him was mentioned by the already referenced Pierre-Stéphane Fort. According to him, media training for the RN leader costs hundreds of thousands of euros. It wasn't easy, as "Bardella has a predisposition for communicating with voters and is good at it, but it's not innate; it's the result of several years of work."

Pascal Humeau, a former RN communications specialist, was more critical of Bardella: "He was an empty shell with a rather limited personality." Humeau believes that even his enthusiasm and now-famous smile are the results of painstaking training.

If a small fortune was indeed invested in Bardella, the money was well placed. PR experts quickly found out that he has a natural talent for charming voters, especially the young ones. This is evident, for instance, in the fact that he currently has 1.7 million French followers on TikTok, and the number grows with each day of the campaign.

His videos include almost everything: drinking wine with winemakers, signing diaries for children, promoting French honey, and delivering fiery speeches at rallies (after the interest in his relationship with Nolwenn Olivier, he stopped posting private photos). A hit video featured him kicking off the election campaign in a nightclub with drinks and a DJ. Whatever the RN leader posts, the views reach hundreds of thousands or millions.

Most clips share a few features. There’s always a “hug” first during a selfie, followed by the obligatory flash of white teeth. The RN boss always looks like he walked out of a photo shoot—suit (sometimes, but not too often, a turtleneck), tie, impeccable hairstyle. If casual, it's controlled casual.

It's a good recipe for how to achieve star status as a politician—Bardella is the only politician to appear on the list of the 50 most popular personalities of the weekly JDD, ranking 30th. He clearly surpassed Marine Le Pen, who in the previous edition was also in the "Top 50" but only in 48th place. This clearly shows his undisputed (and growing) position in the party leadership as well as in the consciousness of the French.

In France, there is even talk of "Bardellomania" or the "Bardella phenomenon"—among voters aged 18-24, he can count on about 30 percent support. Compared to the 2019 European elections, in the last ones he also gained among the 65+ electorate—a rise from 19% to the current 23.

His speeches likely appeal to the oldest voters—the RN leader has become quite a good speaker. He proved this, for example, in a debate, where he faced Prime Minister Gabriel Attal before the European Parliament elections. And although commentators judged that the prime minister performed better, their duel did nothing to the polls.

After announcing early elections, Jordan Bardella has bombarded voters with ideas for France. First and foremost, however, he reassures: "I recognize Russia as a multi-dimensional threat, both for France and Europe". He also assured France would continue to support Ukraine "logistically and equipment-wise" (with the caveat that it wouldn’t be equipment that could attack targets in Russia). This declaration is essential because Marine Le Pen has been repeatedly criticized for downplaying Vladimir Putin's policies, taking multi-million euro loans from Russian banks, and supporting the annexation of Crimea.

Bardella promises to limit the influx of migrants radically—he proposes, among other things, that illegal residence be considered a crime. He also wants those who haven't taken up work for a year to lose their right to stay. He plays on the fear of Islamic terrorism, and the French, recalling the 2015 Paris attacks and the 2016 Nice attack, are still shaken.

"There's no Frenchman or Frenchwoman who isn't concerned about their safety"—Bardella repeated during Tuesday's debate, where he again appeared with Gabriel Attal and Manuel Bompard representing the New Popular Front. During the debate, the RN leader expanded on the idea of abolishing the "right of soil," which grants citizenship to the children of foreigners born in France. He also advocated for limiting access to medical care for those without residence documents.

He promises farmers the introduction of a program to increase their consumption of French products. He proposes giving employers and employees a 10% raise without employer contributions for five years and reversing Macron's pension reform (the retirement age is to be gradually raised to 64).

The RN leader mentions lowering VAT on energy and fuel and eliminating family benefits for families of underage repeat offenders. He also announced large expenditure increases and tax cuts, which for a country where public debt stands at 110% of GDP, could have disastrous consequences.

A herald of the looming war with Brussels is the announcement of reducing France's membership fee. "There’s no reason why everyone should cut spending and the EU shouldn’t. The less we give to the EU, the more will be left to support the French economy," Bardella said.

RN also does not hide that it has not abandoned the idea of stripping the European Commission of decision-making power. It also doesn't want Balkan countries and Ukraine in the Community.

The French like what Jordan Bardella is saying. According to polls by Elabe and Ipsos, RN might gain 35.5% to 36% of the votes. The New Popular Front (left-wing coalition) could get 27-29.5%. The presidential bloc, which includes Renaissance, recorded 19.5-20% support.

Such results mean that RN might count on 250-280 seats in parliament, where an absolute majority is 289. For the far-right, this is a cosmic result. In 2007, when Jean-Marie Le Pen still led the National Front, the party had no representatives in the National Assembly. When he was dethroned by his own daughter, the rise began. 2012: 2 seats, 2017: 8, 2022: 89.

With the distribution of votes projected in the polls, the presidential camp, which currently holds 245 seats, would get only 90-110 places. No wonder Emmanuel Macron is losing his nerve.

In the "Generation Do It Yourself" podcast, he said that the RN and New Popular Front program could lead to civil war in the country. Macron's criticism was mainly directed at the RN. He argued that when addressing issues like crime or migration, the far right relies on "stigmatization or division." The president argued: "They categorize people based on their religion or origin and thus lead to division and civil war."

Bardella responded to him on M6: "The president should not speak this way. I would like to restore security to all French people."

Marine Le Pen hit harder on RTL radio: "In every presidential campaign, he [Macron - ed.] said: either me or chaos. I think the French have realized that it is he who is the chaos, he embodied chaos from the moment he was first elected."

Immediately after the elections were announced, Bardella clearly stated that he is playing for the entire pot, an absolute majority. He assures that if the RN doesn't achieve this, he won’t head the government. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron announced that he wouldn't step down in the case of an RN victory.

The first doesn't need to hurry anywhere. The second knows that when he steps down in 2027, he will be remembered as the one who allowed the ultimate collapse of the "sanitary cordon" around the far right. Thanks to his policies, the chances have increased that the presidential elections in three years will also be won by a right-wing candidate.

Marine Le Pen sees herself in this role (unlike her, Macron hasn’t raised a successor). The biggest threat to her lifelong ambition could be her student, whom she molded to her needs like a clay figurine. According to a poll published in May, 52 percent of RN voters would vote for Bardella, while 43 percent would support Le Pen. The question is whether he is ready for such a confrontation within the "family"—after all, it's just a poll.

The Le Pen-Bardella war, though purely hypothetical, might not be necessary at all. In September, a trial is set to begin in a Paris court, where Marine Le Pen is among those accused of embezzling EU funds. The trial concerns financing party activities with EU money. A verdict is expected in November.

If found guilty, Le Pen would be unable to fight for the coveted presidency. For Jordan Bardella, it would be another win in the political lotto of France.