Drones and danger: Ukraine's plan to disrupt Moscow parade
This year's Victory Parade in Moscow may face significant challenges. While Putin threatens to use the Orieshnik, Ukrainians are sending messages on drones. Here's what might be heading towards Moscow on May 9.
Russia attempted to secure a three-day ceasefire to conduct the Victory Parade on Red Square. However, it appears that this will not materialize, and in response to multiple attacks on their cities, Ukrainians might target Moscow with a swarm of drones.
Despite being easy air defense targets, some drones may penetrate the defenses. It's worth noting that even the best air defense system may be overwhelmed if there are more targets than missiles in the launcher. Another issue is detecting low-flying objects using ground-based radars, which have a limited range of about 25 miles due to the radar horizon.
what Ukrainians might use to attack Moscow
The Ukrainians have developed a variety of long-range drones and systems resembling cruise missiles or fully-fledged cruise missiles. The first category includes drones like "Bóbr," UJ-22 "Airborne," and "Rubaka." These are simple designs with an internal combustion engine and a wingspan of approximately 10 feet. Their range varies greatly but is typically 310 miles or more.
Their takeoff weight is several dozen pounds, with a portion carrying explosive material, while the rest is dedicated to fuel, an engine usually with a push propeller, and simple electronics.
The drones are guided by inertial (INS) and satellite (GPS) navigation, which can be inaccurate when encountering jammers. They are cheap to produce but are slow, with a flying speed slightly over 60 mph, allowing potential evacuation of the target. Nevertheless, the Russians must intercept them, which doesn't occur without collateral damage.
turbojet drones and cruise missiles
The situation is more concerning with "Palyanytsya" drones equipped with turbojet engines. These are much faster, giving the Russians less time to respond, or with fully-fledged cruise missiles like "Long Neptune," which have a range of up to 620 miles and are equipped with an active radar seeker. This seeker can find and hit the target even under severe jamming conditions during the missile's final phase of flight. Such a significant range also allows for creatively plotting flight paths, such as attacking Moscow from the east.
It is suspected that in retaliation for missile and drone attacks on their cities, Ukrainians may attack Moscow with a combination of these on May 9, 2025. It's worth noting that even the threat could impact the capabilities of Russian forces, as many air defense systems may be drawn to Moscow at the expense of units fighting in Ukraine.
