TechDassault Aviation to boost Rafale production amid rising global demand
Dassault Aviation to boost Rafale production amid rising global demand
From 2000 to 2023, the French company Dassault Aviation delivered 164 Rafale fighters to the French air forces and manufactured an additional 102 aircraft for export. This translates to an average annual production of approximately 11.2 aircraft, with a profitability threshold of 11 aircraft per year for the production line. Dassault plans to ramp up its production by the end of this year, aspiring to reach levels usually seen only in companies from superpowers like the USA or China.
Upon the CEO, Eric Trappier's announcement of plans to increase production to three aircraft per month, concerns were raised about the final assembly plants in Mérignac's capacity to sustain such a brisk production pace. In response, Dassault management indicated that, if needed, the factory could boost its output to four or even five fighters per month.
This production scale-up, while advantageous, presents challenges not only for Dassault but also for the around 500 subcontractors involved. The COVID-19 pandemic initiated a crisis followed by inflation and other economic stressors, causing disruptions in the supply chain. This resulted in only 13 of the planned 15 aircraft being delivered to customers in 2023.
For large companies like Dassault, Thales, or Safran, scaling production and making the requisite investments won't be problematic. However, the situation is quite different for the many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that form the bulk of the supply chain. These SMEs often lack the capital for necessary investments. Additionally, securing extra labor and providing training presents another significant hurdle. For many small companies, adjusting from a two-decade trend of supplying parts for 11-16 aircraft per year to this new demand will be a formidable challenge.
Anticipating high demand
In expanding its production capabilities, Dassault aims to brace for a potential crisis in Europe that would necessitate deploying a greater number of combat aircraft. With global tensions on the rise, the company also anticipates further export orders and aims to ensure readiness to meet them. Currently, many clients prioritize short delivery times as much as, if not more than, price or combat performance.
The company has orders for 164 Rafales on the books. By increasing the production rate to 36 aircraft per year, all orders could be fulfilled by 2030, four years earlier than initially planned. Eric Trappier is optimistic about securing an additional 100-150 fighter orders in the coming years, including both international and French demands for replacing older models with next-generation NGF aircraft under the FCAS program.
Should the Franco-German NGF program succeed, production could commence between 2035 and 2040. Additionally, with NATO countries enhancing their defense capabilities, an expansion in the French air forces, necessitating a higher aircraft count, is foreseeable.
Regarding export orders, Dassault is in talks with Colombia, Serbia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and India. The latter two already operate Rafale fighters and are considering additional purchases. France's openness in the arms market, contrasting with the more ethical stance of nations like the USA or Germany, has buoyed the Rafale's international demand.
Rafale F5 and combat drone
The decision to augment production capabilities is also driven by the planned launch of a new Rafale variant — the F5 — by 2030. Despite lacking stealth capabilities, this model aims to match other fifth-generation fighters in equipment standards. Rafale F5 units will either be newly built or modernized from the F4.2 standard, starting production in 2026. While older models can also be upgraded, they won't fully match the F5's capabilities.
Current Rafale operators may consider selling their older aircraft on the secondary market to upgrade to the latest version, given the prevalent international conditions and many countries operating combat aircraft from the 1970s. A prime condition for ordering the new model will be a short delivery time, which Dassault aims to guarantee by enhancing its production capacity.
Another motivator for increasing Rafale production is the anticipated introduction of combat drones, based on the nEUROn technology demonstrator, in the next decade. Expected to perform the riskiest tasks like neutralizing enemy air defenses, the drone's capabilities are projected to compare with modern small single-engine fighters. This move towards higher Rafale production aims to efficiently manage current orders and free up capacity for upcoming combat drone manufacturing.
