Climate change linked to rise in severe turbulence incidents
1:27 PM EDT, May 27, 2024
Passengers from Doha to Dublin on May 26 experienced moments of terror. Due to severe turbulence, 12 people were injured, and seven were hospitalized. Scientists bring unfortunate news in this regard, warning that the climate crisis will increase the frequency of turbulence and its intensity.
Recently, two instances of severe turbulence have resulted in injuries among passengers and crew. Last Tuesday, a Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore encountered severe turbulence, which led to the death of one passenger and injuries to at least 71 people on board. On Sunday, May 26, an Etihad flight from Doha to Dublin faced severe turbulence over Turkey.
Scientists stress that we must prepare for more frequent occurrences of such events. Researchers point out that due to climate change, the intensity and frequency of turbulence will increase.
These conclusions were reached as early as 2017. In the journal "Advances in Atmospheric Sciences," an article was published where scientists conducted climate model simulations to examine clear-air turbulence over transatlantic routes.
They predict that increasing carbon dioxide levels may elevate the turbulence risk. For weak turbulence, the occurrence is estimated to increase by about 59%, for moderate turbulence by about 4%, and for the strongest turbulence, the increase could reach up to 127%.
The latest research confirms these troubling forecasts. The journal Geophysical Research Letters analyzed turbulence cases from 1979 to 2020. The data indicate that severe turbulence incidents have increased in moderate latitudes, where air traffic is most intense.
Climate change exacerbates turbulence. There is another problem
Increased carbon dioxide levels and the resulting higher air temperature lead to changes in air currents, making the skies increasingly "bumpy."
Scientists also point out that a significant turbulence-related problem is the increasing difficulty in predicting them. Rzeczpospolita, citing data from the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board, notes that between 2009 and 2018, one in three turbulence incidents was not signaled to the crew in advance.
Particularly difficult to predict are CAT (Clear Air Turbulence) incidents, which occur in clear air. Their observation is challenging due to the lack of clouds, which would allow for the observation of air mass movements. The absence of clouds also means that radar signals have nothing to bounce off, making the detection of turbulence by this method impossible.
