Chinese H‑20 bomber: Emerging stealth threat or overhyped?

The 15th edition of Airshow China 2024, scheduled from November 12 to 17, promises surprises. The hosts, along with guests, are determined to make it noteworthy. During the event, Russia will present its premier fighter, the fifth-generation Su-57, garners more sarcasm than admiration. China, meanwhile, is announcing the official debut of Beijing's second stealth fighter, the J-35A. Photos of the enigmatic J-20 fighter cockpit, expected to appear at the show, have also appeared online.

Aviation experts had anticipated that Airshow China 2024 might be an opportune moment for the debut of the Chinese strategic bomber Xi'an H-20. However, according to National Interest, this is more likely to occur during Airshow China 2026. The delay will allow Beijing to enhance the aircraft, potentially challenging American strategic bombers like the B-2 Spirit and its successor, the B-21 Raider bombers.

Photos available on Chinese social media likely do not capture the final concept of the H-20 but do highlight the direction the Chinese have taken in the aircraft's development. The plane is being designed in a flying wing configuration. This tailless design, lacking a distinct fuselage or empennage, may help reduce fuel consumption and hinder detection by advanced radar and missile systems, increasing its effectiveness during missions over contested or enemy territories.

According to Army Recognition, "it is expected that the H-20 will be a highly advanced asset in China's strategic arsenal, designed for extended range, large payloads, and increased survivability in contested environments." The exact specifications of the aircraft remain unknown, but claims suggest its range may reach up to 5,280 miles, with the ability to carry both conventional and nuclear weapons. Its payload capacity is anticipated to be at least 22,000 pounds. Notably, unlike Beijing's currently used Xi'an H-6 bombers, which are licensed versions of the Soviet Tupolev Tu-16, the H-20 is an indigenous project.

Thus, the H-20 could become a crucial component of China's nuclear triad and deterrence strategy. However, analysts from National Interest indicate that American officials are not highly concerned about the progress of the H-20 project. The Pentagon is reportedly skeptical of its capabilities. Americans, including Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, believe that the H-20 lags far behind the capabilities of future U.S. bombers, like the B-21 Raider, and is also trailing the B-2 Spirit bombers.

Nonetheless, the overall pace of China's military expansion is concerning. Beijing allocates significant resources to the development of its weapons systems, including fighters and the aforementioned bombers. It is also expanding its nuclear arsenal, as highlighted in a recent report by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the American military intelligence agency within the Pentagon. The document notes that in 2020, Beijing had approximately 200 operational nuclear warheads, currently possesses about 500, and their number could exceed a thousand by 2030.