China's maneuvers around Taiwan spark global tensions

Speaking at the Honolulu Defense Forum, the American military officer warned that through actions like sending spy balloons, ships, and airplanes near Taiwan, Beijing is attempting "a forced unification of Taiwan with the mainland." He also argued that "China's increasingly complex multi-domain operations indicate clear intentions and growing capabilities," and that exercises around Taiwan are evolving from maneuvers into real probes.

Professor Maciej Gaca, in a conversation with WP Tech, admitted he approaches such statements cautiously. "Indeed, the Chinese are significantly increasing their operational capabilities and expanding every possible arsenal, including their naval forces. However, they do not hide that for 30 years their primary goal has been to access the open Indo-Pacific. They treat the East China Sea and South China Sea—at least rhetorically—as their internal seas and try to impose such thinking on the international community," he explained.

"I do not see any change in this approach. The expansion of China's military might is a process that has been ongoing for years, and the Chinese will not be interested in gaining Taiwan militarily because it would mean the destruction of the island, its infrastructure, and everything that is valuable there from their point of view," added the sinologist.

However, Professor Gaca noted that the increase in China's dominance in the East China Sea and South China Sea area could lead to these waters effectively becoming internal seas. This is especially true since China claims almost 90 percent of the South China Sea (a claim rejected by the Hague Tribunal in 2016). Such a change in perception would violate international treaties regarding navigation on open waters.

"Let's not forget that a significant portion of exports to Europe, Japan, Korea, as well as the North, passes through the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, there is no regional agreement for such a situation. Not only the United States, but also South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines are intent on countering China's expansion. As a result, there are regular demonstrations of power—warships from various countries like the USA, Japan, Germany, France, the UK, and Australia sail through this region to assert freedom of navigation. The Chinese respond by sending their forces, insisting these are internal waters. The situation is further complicated by China's historic claim to the so-called 'nine-dash line,' based on maps from the Ming dynasty (14th-17th century)," the expert explained.

"In response to growing tensions in the region, the USA has renewed agreements concerning the leasing of land for existing military bases and has agreed to construct new facilities in the Philippines and near Taiwan. The military presence on Okinawa, trilateral cooperation between the USA, Japan, and South Korea, and explicit declarations by Japanese politicians about involvement in Taiwan's defense are strengthening the deterrence strategy against China," he summarized.

The latest Chinese exercises near Taiwan—known as "Joint Sword-2024B"—took place in December 2024. These maneuvers were Beijing's response to a foreign visit by the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, which included stops in the United States. Chinese maritime and air operations were extensive, surpassing earlier exercises from May and October 2024, when Beijing engaged a record number of 125 aircraft, including fighter jets, helicopters, and drones, as well as the aircraft carrier Liaoning and numerous ships. These actions were intended to demonstrate China's ability to potentially blockade Taiwan and deter further diplomatic contacts with other countries.

Professor Gaca points out, however, that Beijing must carefully weigh the geopolitical and military implications of such initiatives. "Open, aggressive actions would be condemned on the international stage and undermine Beijing's narrative, which aims to attract Global South countries. It would also show neighboring countries that China could use force at any moment to expand its influence, further increasing regional tensions," he noted. "Therefore, it can be assumed that China employs a strategy of pressure, building up its military arsenal to show the capability of quickly taking over Taiwan. However, their goal is not a direct invasion but to use this threat as a negotiating tool," he added.

Similar to China's claims to the so-called "nine-dash line," military contacts between the USA and Taiwan are nothing new. "They existed even during the presidencies of Clinton and Obama, with significant intensification after 2017 when several major American arms companies opened offices in Taiwan," the sinologist recalled.

Taiwan engages in various military transactions with the United States, and recently there have been reports of plans for large arms purchases from the USA. Reuters, citing three different sources familiar with the matter, reports that Taiwan is already in talks with Washington, with a contract worth between $7 billion to $10 billion, likely including cruise missiles and rockets for HIMARS launchers, on the table.

All this makes Taiwan a strategic area of influence for the USA, where American presence is multifaceted. The island's location blocks China's expansion into the Pacific, and Taiwan strengthens the USA's alliance system in East Asia. Additionally, and often overlooked, it is a key producer of semiconductors. Taiwanese company TSMC supplies advanced chips used in American technology and defense industries.

Therefore, the USA not only exports its goods but also imports solutions critical to its defense industry. However, it should be remembered that the United States still practices a policy of strategic ambiguity. In practice, this means they do not officially side with Taiwan, but emphasize that any changes to the island's status must result from peaceful negotiations.

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