China's important message to the world. September data "without signs of recovery"
4:14 PM EDT, October 18, 2023
China has published the latest economic indicators. The GDP data for the third quarter of the current year should be read as slightly positive, but the data for September are "without signs of recovery" - state ING analysts. Santander's experts point to the tense situation in the Middle East.
China on Tuesday evening Eastern Time published essential economic indicators. As noted by economists from Santander Bank, GDP for Q3 reached a growth of 4.9 percent year on year. Experts expected growth of 4.4 percent.
China publishes data not only about GDP
The reading was higher quarter on quarter by 1.3 percent, analysts expected the stimulation in quarterly terms to be shallower and reach 1 percent. In the second quarter, the GDP growth was 6.3 percent year on year.
We also know the data on industrial production. It amounted to 4.5 percent y/y (year-over-year), and analysts expected a result at the level of 4.3 percent. The retail sales result was 5.5 percent y/y., and the consensus indicated 4.9 percent.
The data for September was essentially better than expected, which could suggest that the earlier stimulus used by the Chinese authorities may start working. Chinese data inspire some optimism, though it may be curbed by the tense situation in the Middle East - write Santander experts.
"September 'without signs of revival'"
According to ING experts, GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 should be interpreted as slightly positive. However, the data for September shows "no signs of recovery".
Better data for the third quarter of 2023 resulted in a stronger reading after three quarters of 2023. On a cumulative basis since the beginning of the year (YTD) - an increase of 5.2 percent year over year after 5.5 percent a quarter earlier and with a consensus of 5.0 percent - is reported.
According to ING experts, the better-than-expected GDP reading for the third quarter was due to a slight improvement in industrial production (an increase of 4.0 percent YTD year on year compared to the consensus and an August increase of 3.9 percent) and in retail sales. "They increased by 6.8 percent YTD year on year in September compared to the consensus of 6.7 percent, but after 7.0 percent in August. Both indicators do not signal a rebound in economic activity," the bank's analysis reads.
