China's high-stakes desert gamble: Satellite images reveal life-size replicas of American military installations

The US Naval Institute indicates that China has been building replicas of American ships and infrastructure since 2018. These objects in the middle of the Takla Makan desert were discovered in western China by satellite images in 2022.

This discovery has given analysts a basis for questioning why Beijing is erecting more or less accurate copies of American ships and naval infrastructure in the sandy wastelands. A catalog of recognized objects has made answering this question easier.

One of these objects is a model of an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer. The US Navy currently operates 73 such units, with more under construction. Equipped with the Mk 41 VLS modular vertical launch, they can carry a diverse range of task-specific weapons without requiring structural changes.

The Arleigh Burke-class destroyers serve as a double-edged sword within the US Navy. They are capable of attacking ships and ground targets with maneuvering missiles. Meanwhile, they also act as the shield of the American fleet, providing anti-aircraft coverage using the AEGIS battle management system. To destroy an American aircraft carrier, you must first destroy its protective ships. The Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and Ticonderoga-class cruisers are the most vital of those protective forces.

China has also constructed a schematic model of an American aircraft carrier, a Kidd-class destroyer (currently in use by the Taiwanese fleet), a Japanese military airfield, and a fragment of an American base located on Guam Island - a critical US military installation in the Pacific. This includes the Andersen airfield, which is capable of handling the largest aircraft, such as B-52 strategic bombers.

Guam is also home to the powerful AN/TPY-6 radar and anti-missile installations, set up by the American Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and equipped with a land-based variant of the AEGIS system. They must protect the airfield and Arpa harbor, which can accommodate enormous ships like American aircraft carriers.

Most recent photos from China, taken in 2024, suggest that another precise model of such a ship has recently been built. It is so accurate that it permits the identification of a specific unit - the USS Gerald R. Ford, the latest American aircraft carrier and the first of a new series.

Despite its visual resemblance to the previous Nimitz type, this class of ship boasts considerably greater capabilities. The significant difference, due to the employment of a new propulsion system and electromagnetic catapults that replace steam catapults, is the ability to conduct more intense air operations.

The new model is technically intriguing. The shape mirrors the deck of the aircraft carrier and is surrounded by various masts, likely designed to generate the full radar signature of the American ship. This allows them to simulate its presence without constructing an enormous hull.

This aims to create a training ground that readies the Chinese armed forces for a potential confrontation with the United States, where the American fleet and aviation will likely play a primary role. Aircraft carriers will likely be critical in determining the course of the battle.

It is essential to develop methods to counter these or refine the algorithms guiding various weapons to their targets, such as the new hypersonic anti-ship YJ-21 missiles or DF-26 missiles. Given an aircraft carrier's immense size, sinking is a tremendous challenge, requiring multiple hits with conventional warheads.

However, it is not necessary to sink a large ship - causing damage to the point of disabling its combat capabilities, e.g., by destroying catapults, lifts, or the propulsion system, could be enough.

Using this approach, the NSM anti-ship missiles used by Poland can be quite effective despite their relatively small warheads. Though it's too small to sink larger ships with a single hit, it is sufficient to disable them from combat with a precise strike.

Simply scoring a hit on a large, aircraft carrier-grade ship can be an extreme challenge. During maneuvers, French and Swedish submarines managed this, but under very specific circumstances and at close quarters with carrier strike groups.

Chinese anti-ship missiles are often cited as "aircraft carrier killers," but this might involve some exaggeration.

Striking the ship after the missile has breached defenses operated by airplanes, airborne AWACS, and a team of ships equipped with the AEGIS fire control system may be the most straightforward part of this equation.

Yet, detecting the aircraft carrier and guiding a missile toward it when the target is hundreds of miles away remains challenging. For instance, covering a distance of 310 miles (assuming that Americans wouldn't sail close to the coast) with a missile flying near the speed of sound takes about half an hour. During this time, the ship would have moved 19 miles.

Ballistic missiles or hypersonic weapons can shorten this time. However, high speed also makes precise targeting challenging, and decreasing it before hitting the target could amplify the exposure time to defensive systems.

These are challenges that China, if they're indeed preparing for war, would have to figure out. The models they're building in the desert show they're making the most of their time.