TechChina races to clone Starlink, advancing space dominance ambitions

China races to clone Starlink, advancing space dominance ambitions

Chinese rocket Long March 5B on the launch pad.

Images source: © Defence Talk

9:26 AM EST, February 29, 2024

Starlink, a project spearheaded by Elon Musk, has made a significant impression on Chinese officials, compelling them not only to explore strategies for its destruction but to replicate its capabilities. The race to dominate space is now marked by China's efforts to establish its own orbital communication infrastructure and to populate low Earth orbits with satellites under the control of Beijing.

Back in 2007, China demonstrated its anti-satellite capabilities by annihilating its FY-1C satellite in orbit. It's advancing other kinds of weaponry, such as lasers, combat satellites, and microwave weapons. These are being developed and trialed—fortunately without orbital targets yet—but their potential operational use raises alarming concerns over the generation of extensive, uncontrollable space debris.

Copying Starlink, rather than destroying it, emerged as China's preferred strategy. This insight is part of a 2022 report by Ren Yuanzhen and his team at the Beijing Institute of Tracking and Telecommunications, indicating China's ambition to mirror the capabilities of the American satellite constellation.

Civil Infrastructure, Military Communication

Originally designed to serve civilian purposes, Starlink ensures reliable internet access across various conditions and locales, regardless of terrestrial infrastructure. Despite limitations, its utility extends beyond casual use, proving invaluable for specialized needs, including military applications.

The U.S. Air Force has lauded its performance in the Arctic, a region where conventional communication channels falter. Additionally, as per Defense One, the Space Force views Starlink as a vital, unrestricted communication medium, enriching the flow of information and control among different unmanned vehicles and serving key government functions.

Ukrainian soldier with a Starlink antenna© Mil.in.ua

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has underscored its strategic importance, with Ukrainian military intelligence head, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, acknowledging its role. Consequently, the Pentagon and SpaceX are collaboratively developing the Starshield service, repurposing civil Starlink infrastructure for military communications.

However, Starlink's dependence on Elon Musk's whims poses challenges, evidenced by its erratic availability in conflict zones like Ukraine or near Taiwan.

Cost of Space Transportation

China's aspiration to craft a Starlink equivalent remains experimental, despite keen interest from top governmental bodies. Initial launches of experimental communication microsatellites took place in mid-2023, followed by additional deployments later in the year.

The primary obstacle for China is the prohibitive cost, as its conventional rocket launches can't match the efficiency and economy of SpaceX's reusable components. SpaceX's Falcon 9, benefitting from reusable modules, significantly undercuts traditional launch costs, a disparity China hopes to mitigate with its forthcoming Long March 9 rocket—expected to debut between 2028 and 2030.

Ambitious plans to construct a nearly 13,000-satellite constellation confront logistical hurdles, notably the ongoing maintenance and renewal of the satellites, estimated to have a five-year operational lifespan. Emulating SpaceX's innovation in cost-effective space transport is a crucial step for China if it intends to replicate the Starlink model and its strategic advantages successfully.