Campi Flegrei volcano tremors trigger panic, evacuation concerns rise
The most dangerous volcano in Europe? Surprisingly, it's not Vesuvius. Campi Flegrei is a massive underground volcanic system last active in 1538. Researchers are increasingly worried about the frequent earthquakes in this region. In the event of an eruption threat, more than a million people would need to be evacuated.
8:42 AM EDT, May 21, 2024
Tremors were already felt on Saturday, May 18, at dawn. However, the strongest shock, with a magnitude of 4.4, occurred on Monday, May 20, at 4:10 PM ET. Residents are increasingly terrified and confused. On Monday, many of them took to the city streets with suitcases, waiting for the situation to calm down. They were ready to get into their cars at any moment.
Campi Flegrei is called the "second Vesuvius." Thirty thousand years ago, an eruption of this supervolcano contributed to the extinction of Neanderthals. It last showed activity in 1538.
Researchers thought that this volcano erupted every 25,000 years. However, massive eruptions occurred more frequently—every 10,000 to 15,000 years. Since 2019, the area has been increasingly affected by seismic tremors.
The decision to evacuate was first made in the 1980s when 40,000 residents were preventively evacuated. At that time, no eruption occurred. However, nothing can be taken for granted; contrary to appearances, a decrease in activity may signal an imminent eruption.
A million people will need to be evacuated
The red zone, which is most vulnerable to the effects of an eruption and the expulsion of hot magma to the surface, contains half a million residents.
An additional 800,000 people live in the yellow zone. According to the latest plans, evacuating both zones would take three days.
Campi Flegrei is called a supervolcano for a reason—it can produce magma volumes greater than 240 cubic miles, which is thousands of times more substantial than standard eruptions. Scientists compare the consequences of this volcano's eruption to the impact of a large meteorite.
Residents of Pozzuoli, near Naples, literally live "on a ticking time bomb." Satellite images show the supervolcano's craters scattered throughout the city.
Since 2012, the Italian Civil Protection Agency has declared a second-level alert in the region (in a 4-level warning system), which signifies "slightly increased activity." It is not ruled out that soon it will be changed to the third level, indicating "increased activity." The fourth level would mean the immediate evacuation of the population.
Predicting a supervolcano eruption is challenging
British volcanologist Christoph Kilburn has developed a model that observes how rock, still able to adapt to increasing pressure, transitions into a non-elastic state. However, recently, rocks have been broken more frequently than bent. It is unknown whether it will be possible to recognize that the situation has become very serious early enough.
Unfortunately, you can't look inside Campi Flegrei or drill into the magma chamber to collect samples, says Thomas Walter of the German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam.
Scientists have another idea. They want to use... animals. A team led by Martin Wikelski, director of the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior in Radolfzell, has developed a system that automatically detects abnormalities in the behavior of various animals before strong earthquakes or volcanic eruptions.
Initial research has already been conducted in Sicily. The activity of the local volcano, Etna, was monitored. Local farmers proposed using... their goats for the study. To the scientists' surprise, before 14 major eruptions of Etna recorded in recent years, the animals exhibited characteristic movements, which computers noted and reported.
In Abruzzo, using the behavior of dogs and cows transmitted via radio, earthquakes were successfully predicted.
