Bundeswehr's possible scenario. NATO deploying 300,000 troops against Russian incursion by 2025
The Bundeswehr contrived this defensive warfare plan in response to a potential escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. The forecast commences in February 2024 and concludes on a date referred to as "Day X" in the summer of 2025.
As per the scenario, Russia would mobilize an extra 200,000 personnel by February 2024. By June, they would have overwhelmed the Ukrainian military.
The Bundeswehr anticipates Moscow inciting aggressive conduct towards the Russian minority in Baltic nations. This would lead to conflicts, serving as a pretext to organize the Zapad-2024 exercises in September, with 50,000 soldiers participating in Western Russia and Belarus.
"By October 2024, Russia would reposition troops and mid-range missiles to Kaliningrad to attack the Suwalki corridor, linking the Kaliningrad region with Belarus through Lithuanian territory," as derived from the scenario Bild has access to.
Following the U.S. elections, internal disputes and heightened unrest would transpire in Baltic nations. In conjunction with Poland, the leaders of these states would call a NATO Council meeting in January 2025 and proclaim the escalating threat from Russia.
In May 2025, NATO, based on the German scenario, would decide to avert an attack on the Suwalki corridor.
"On 'Day X,' as inferred from the Bundeswehr's confidential document, the NATO supreme commander issues an order to dispatch 300,000 soldiers to the eastern flank, including 30,000 from the German army," writes "Bild."
The Bundeswehr told the newspaper that such a scenario is deemed unlikely. Russian media also share this view, questioning why mobilization would commence in February, just before the presidential elections scheduled for March.
Head of Bundeswehr: We need to adapt to this possibility
In December, Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Gen. Carsten Breuer, asserted in a discussion with the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung" that a defensive war led by Germany is possible. He underlined that a return to the pre-2022 state, i.e., before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, won't be feasible anytime soon.
We should initially adapt to the possibility that one day we might need to engage in a defensive war suggested Breuer.
We must prepare for technological advancements and escalated hybrid warfare. Recognizing the threat is the first step. It's not just us, the soldiers, but society as a whole that needs to understand the need for a more consistent deterrent, he stressed.
Breuer responded: Yes, unequivocally, when questioned if the Bundeswehr could withstand a potential Russian attack on NATO. We don't have an alternative. We are in a position to defend ourselves, and we will.
