Black Sea ceasefire tied to sanctions relief, Kremlin warns
According to a statement published by the Kremlin, a ceasefire in the Black Sea regarding the war with Ukraine can only take effect after sanctions are lifted, allowing Russia to resume food and fertilizer exports. These conditions were not part of the US-Russian agreement, notes the BBC.
On Tuesday, after three days of separate talks with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Riyadh, the White House announced that both sides agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea. The US also agreed to assist Russia in facilitating the export of agricultural products and fertilizers and to help Ukraine with the return of children taken by Russia.
Russia hopes for sanction lifting
According to the British broadcaster, the agreements between the US and Ukraine and between the US and Russia contained similar provisions. These included commitments to ensure safe navigation and to "eliminate the use of force." The documents also included the parties' consent to "develop measures to implement the agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine."
The BBC reports that while President Volodymyr Zelensky seemed rather satisfied, he regretted that the prohibition was not unequivocal. The Ukrainian leader also secured a provision that the United States will "remain committed to helping achieve the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children."
However, a document published by Russia soon after the agreements were made in Saudi Arabia "muddied the waters," the BBC evaluates. It stipulates that the Black Sea ceasefire would only come into effect once sanctions on Russian banks, insurance companies, ports, and ships are lifted. This means the Kremlin sees the agreement not as a revival of the so-called Black Sea grain initiative—from which it withdrew in 2023—but as an opportunity for the West to withdraw a significant number of sanctions imposed on Russia.
This would require time and thus delay the ceasefire; moreover, not all the steps demanded by Russia fall under the jurisdiction of the US. Returning to the SWIFT system would require European Union approval, the BBC emphasized.
Additionally, the Kremlin announced that the thirty-day pause in attacks on infrastructure would be backdated to March 18 and could be suspended if one party violated the agreement.
"Fragile steps agreed"
In other words, what has been agreed is a fragile step towards some diminution of the fighting in Ukraine but with no guarantee of success amid an atmosphere of mutual distrust," the BBC evaluates. "Even if today's agreement were to survive, it is still a long way from the comprehensive countrywide ceasefire the US originally wanted," reads the analysis.
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According to the BBC, the most important aspect is not announcing ceasefires, but "if and how it is implemented."
"Will both sides make this deal work and then live up to it? Because in the answer to those questions we will learn much about what both sides really want. Do they want a ceasefire to turn into a longer-term peace? Or do they just want to trade while pressing home their advantage on the battlefield?" summarizes the BBC.
