Black Sea ceasefire: Russia gains, Ukraine stands firm
Former British Navy officer Tom Sharp believes that the ceasefire in the Black Sea, negotiated by the United States, will be significantly more beneficial for Russia than for Ukraine.
In an analysis conducted for "The Telegraph," Sharp stated that of the three countries involved in the negotiations, only one can be satisfied: Russia. In his opinion, Russia was defeated in the Black Sea and is merely pretending to be interested in a ceasefire to create a façade for the international community.
The Black Sea agreement is a success for the Russians
Sharp highlighted that Ukrainian exports and imports via sea routes have reached levels in 2024 comparable to those before the war. According to the expert, this indicates the dominance Ukraine has achieved in the Black Sea. By utilizing marine drones, they have effectively pushed back the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Currently, the threats from Russia around the Black Sea are limited to remaining sea mines and occasional missile attacks.
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Thus, Russia has little leverage to halt attacks. However, they stand to gain significantly from a temporary ceasefire. Sharp noted that the Black Sea Fleet, now able to move freely and resupply, may rebuild and pose a renewed threat to Ukraine.
"A fleet that is allowed to regroup, replenish and operate to the west without fear can and will be more dangerous, and if the ceasefire doesn’t hold it will be better placed to go back on the attack," Sharp assessed.
Black Sea Fleet decimated by Ukrainian drones
Among the most damaging strikes against Russian forces in the Black Sea was the Neptune anti-ship missile attack that sank the Moskva missile cruiser, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, as well as the destruction of the Project 775 landing ship (Minsk) and the Kilo-class submarine 877 (Rostov-on-Don).
Ukrainian surface drones, particularly the frequently used Sea Baby drones, have become a significant threat to Russian forces in the Black Sea. These drones can carry up to 1,875 pounds of explosives. Kyiv has also developed the Magura V5 drone and the Stalker 5.0 drone, which was showcased in 2024 at the international security forum in Odessa.
Some Russian ships were eliminated by tactical missiles (Tochka-U) and cruise missiles, Storm Shadow and Scalp-EG, provided to Ukraine by the United Kingdom and France. Due to these losses and ongoing threats, the Russians decided to relocate their main base from the occupied Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.
