Biden weighs 2024 run as Michelle Obama gains ground

According to a poll published on Tuesday by Ipsos and Reuters, the wife of former President Barack Obama could expect a significant lead in a hypothetical match-up with Trump, defeating him by a vote ratio of 50-39%.

However, Michelle Obama has repeatedly declared that she will not run in the elections. Among the other potential alternatives to Biden included in the poll, only Vice President Kamala Harris came close to Biden's results (42% compared to 43% for Trump). In the same poll, a Biden-Trump match-up resulted in a tie, with 40% of respondents indicating the two candidates.

After last week's debate in response to increasing calls for Biden's resignation, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre assured that the president is capable of performing his duties and does not intend to step down. She admitted, however, that questions about the president's condition are justified but denied that Biden suffers from dementia or Alzheimer's disease.

Meanwhile, as reported on Wednesday by "The New York Times", Joe Biden said in a conversation with one of his close associates that he realizes "he may not be able to sustain his candidacy." Contrary to earlier declarations, Biden is now considering stepping down from seeking re-election.

In such circumstances, is it possible to have a twist in the election campaign and replace Joe Biden with another candidate? What will the Democrats do to win the presidential election on November 4?

"It seems to me that there will be no twist in the presidential elections and the replacement of Joe Biden with another candidate. The decision depends solely on the incumbent president and his well-being. And nothing indicates that he would withdraw," Jerzy Marek Nowakowski, an expert on international affairs and the president of the Euro-Atlantic Association, says.

But as he emphasizes, this is a difficult moment in the campaign for Biden.

"First because of the loss in the televised debate with Donald Trump. And secondly, in the current situation, polls indicate that one-third of Democrats are demanding his withdrawal. The debate has sown doubt that will remain in his electorate. Today, it is difficult to predict what will happen until the election on November 5. The key question is: will Biden return to better functionality and physical condition?" comments Nowakowski.

Professor Zbigniew Lewicki, an American studies scholar, speaks in a similar tone.

"For anything to happen, Biden would have to resign. And he is not eager to do that. The Democrats are now engaging in a Napoleonic dialogue: 'we don't have cannons,' and the discussion of another candidate looks like a perfect topic for the silly season. As long as Biden does not withdraw himself, it will pour from the empty to the void," says Zbigniew Lewicki.

Both respondents also referred to the poll results in which Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris received good results.

"In the case of Michelle Obama's candidacy, it's a dream of returning to Barack Obama, who cannot run. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is the natural choice as vice president. Many people who will vote for Biden will do so because of Kamala Harris, assuming that the US president may not last health-wise until the end of the term," assesses Jerzy Marek Nowakowski.

"With Kamala Harris, just like years ago with Hillary Clinton, there is one problem. She has a substantial negative electorate. And Michelle Obama is like a mirage, a political illusion for Democrat-supporting voters. This is because she has not previously run for office and was not in politics. And most importantly, she is not 'tainted.' Everyone thinks she would be a very good candidate," American studies scholar Prof. Zbigniew Lewicki tells WP.