NewsBiden gains on Trump as election polls waver: What the experts say

Biden gains on Trump as election polls waver: What the experts say

Who will win the elections in the USA? "Polls are much less reliable"
Who will win the elections in the USA? "Polls are much less reliable"
Images source: © PAP | PAP/EPA/Jonathan Ernst / POOL

5:53 AM EDT, May 4, 2024

With only a few months until the presidential elections in the United States, public interest is at its peak. Daily polls offer insights into the candidates' standings. However, the latest findings suggest that Donald Trump has lost his lead over Joe Biden. But how much stock can we put in these polls? "Polls are only a snapshot of a given moment and not good for predictions," says Prof. Allan Lichtman.

The outcome of the presidential elections in the United States holds significant global implications. Joe Biden has spent over two years supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, while Donald Trump advocates for a different approach that could potentially reduce aid to Kyiv.

US election predictions: The reliability of polls questioned

New polls are released almost daily as November approaches, painting a picture of a tight race between Biden and Trump. Recently, some polls have shown Biden in the lead, a notable change from a few months ago when Trump held a slight edge.

"Regarding these polls, one should heed the advice of the philosopher David Hume and view them with suspicion. It's best to disregard these polls entirely. They fail to accurately predict election outcomes and, as evidenced in 2016, can even steer public opinion in the wrong direction," notes Prof. Allan Lichtman, a historian and American scientist, during his talk with Interia.

It's important to recall that while polls in 2016 predicted a win for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump ultimately secured the presidency. According to Prof. Lichtman, this discrepancy raises questions about the reliability of current polls.

Prof. Lichtman, famed for developing "The Keys to the White House" — a predictive model for election outcomes — has an impressive track record, with only one mistake in ten elections. He emphasizes that "polls are only a snapshot of a given moment and are unreliable predictors." He adds that statistical errors in polls are often larger than reported, noting a trend where Democrats are currently underestimated, a reversal from eight years ago when Republicans were often undervalued.

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Unlike traditional methods, Prof. Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" does not depend on polls or expert opinions but focuses on governance quality. It evaluates how the party in power and the president are perceived in their roles.

In a recent discussion with "The Guardian," Prof. Lichtman mentioned, "A lot must go wrong for Biden to lose." Though he has not yet released his election forecast, it's clear from his comments that the current administration holds several advantages. The outcome may hinge on developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict and the situation in Ukraine.

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