Biden drops out: Kamala Harris steps up, European allies rejoice

On Sunday, July 21, incumbent President Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election. The decision caused a political earthquake in the USA, as the presidential election is now less than four months away. "On one hand, I wasn't surprised, because the tension had been building for weeks, but on the other hand, I was in shock, like everyone else, that he actually did it," comments Townsend, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy in the Obama administration.

In his opinion, "Biden did the right thing," because "the Democrats now have a better chance of winning." And that is good news for Europe, NATO, and Ukraine, said the o2.pl interviewee, who, before joining the Obama administration, worked for years in the Pentagon and NATO, focusing on European policy and defense.

Biden has named Kamala Harris, the current Vice President of the USA, as his successor. It is not yet certain that the 59-year-old will be the Democratic candidate in the election, but Townsend, who knows the party inside and out—he spent 8 years in the Obama administration—emphasizes that she is the best choice.

Kamala Harris has many strengths. She is 18 years younger, has great charisma, and tremendous energy. She will be supported by many large voter groups, including African Americans and women, he says.

However, he adds after a moment that there are also things that he believes Harris needs to work on. At this moment, she leans too far to the left politically, and she should move closer to the center to convince people who currently find her too liberal, he stated.

At the same time, Townsend has no doubts that Harris as president "is the best scenario for NATO and Europe". It would simply mean that there would be someone in the White House who supports them, he explained.

Kamala Harris is not a major expert on international issues. On these topics, she would rely on her advisors' knowledge, and she has good ones. What is important, however, is that she is open to listening to advice. This is a big difference between her and Trump because he surrounds himself with loyalists and does not care about expert opinions, he added.

While Democrats do not have an official presidential candidate after Biden's decision, the situation is clear for the Republican Party—Donald Trump will run in the election. What would his potential victory mean for Poland?

I think Trump likes Poland and respects that Poland spends a lot of money on defense. He got along well with the previous Polish government, and he also gets along well with Andrzej Duda. I think the current government would also get along with him, said Townsend.

If I were the Poles, I wouldn't worry about the relationship with the USA. But I would worry about what Trump and Putin could come up with together. That's a bigger problem. Trump is a fan of Putin, and I'm sure he has some ideas about Russia, the war in Ukraine, and agreements that could be unfavorable for Ukraine, he added.

Trump previously criticized European countries for not spending enough money on defense. Poland is a leader among NATO countries, as this year it plans to allocate around 4.12% of GDP for this purpose, and next year, as Wirtualna Polska unofficially found out, possibly even around 5%. Many other countries spend below 3%, and some—such as Spain and Italy—even below the 2% threshold set by NATO.

Townsend acknowledges that European armies have a problem. There is a lack of military pilots, ammunition, tanks, and personnel. The British lacked sailors to man their ships. There are also no skills, e.g., for conducting electronic warfare. Poland is in the best shape of all. You are doing what needs to be done, he said.

In recent months, there were even concerns that Trump would pull the USA out of NATO. I don't think he would do that. I think at most, if he gets angry, he would order his ambassador to NATO to return to the USA. But I don't believe in exiting the North Atlantic Alliance.

He adds that the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte should be able to handle Trump if he becomes president. They know each other well; Rutte was the Prime Minister of the Netherlands when Trump was president. He knows how to "read" Trump. I don't expect problems here, he stated.

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. Kamala Harris has already received the support of 2,579 delegates—enough to secure the Democratic Party nomination. Formally, this may happen as early as August 7 during a virtual vote.

In polls conducted before Biden withdrew from the race for the White House, Kamala Harris had a smaller deficit to Trump than the incumbent president. Nationwide, the US Vice President had, on average, two percentage points less support than Donald Trump—she was trailing him 46% to 48%, while Biden had 44% support compared to 47% for Trump.