Belarus sets early election date amid fears of opposition crackdown
The Belarusian parliament has announced that the presidential elections will take place in January, even though they had the option to organize them until July. According to the opposition, this decision stems from "fear of their own elections." As former Belarusian ambassador to Poland, Pavel Latushka, states, there is no opportunity for an opposition candidate to participate in the elections. "We have an atmosphere of fear and terror," he says in an interview.
3:34 PM EDT, October 23, 2024
During the session of the Belarusian parliament, it was announced that the presidential elections will be held on January 26, 2025. The Central Election Commission emphasized that it is "ready to start the election campaign," according to its chairman Igor Karpenko.
Many commentators are surprised by this development. According to the constitution, the government had until July 20 to organize the elections. However, the authorities decided to hold them more than six months in advance. They explain that the early elections are in line with the implementation of a "five-year socio-economic development plan."
The opposition argues that setting such an early date reveals the regime’s apprehensions. "It shows fear regarding their own (Alexander Lukashenko’s) election. Only a limited period was given to form initiative groups of candidates, so that no competitors could act or organize a campaign," says former Belarusian ambassador to Poland Pavel Latushka in an interview with Wirtualna Polska.
According to Latushka, "only a madman can try" to actually compete with Lukashenko. "It is simply impossible for any opposition candidate to run in the elections," he says. "There will probably be so-called spoilers, i.e., controlled opposition. Anyone else who wants to oppose Lukashenko risks a straightforward path to prison," he emphasizes.
He recalls that some candidates from the 2020 elections are currently in prison (such as Siarhei Tsikhanouski) or are in exile because remaining in the country poses the risk of being sent to penal colonies.
"We have an atmosphere of fear and terror"
"All opposition parties and independent media have been eliminated. Every day, people are being detained and sentenced. We have an atmosphere of fear and terror. Just the day before yesterday, a woman, a mother of three, was detained for criticizing Lukashenko on social media," he describes.
However, the opposition has devised a certain plan. "As a coalition of democratic forces, we know that the majority of society does not want Lukashenko. We will publish a strategy for them. We will propose using the 'election' day to come to the polls and vote against everyone," says Latushka.
He also notes that the opposition will reach out to Belarusians living outside the country who have been deprived of their voting rights. "We will organize rallies in different parts of the world, including Warsaw. On the day of what Lukashenko calls elections, we will show our opposition," he says.
Russian military presence at the elections?
Latushka also points out another interesting issue. "The elections" were announced just as Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov arrived in Minsk. During the meeting, his Belarusian counterpart Viktar Khrenin announced that joint military maneuvers, Zapad-2025, would be organized next year.
"These exercises will be the main event of the joint training of military command centers and forces in 2025 and will create conditions for further improvement of the existing military security system of the Union State," said Khrenin.
The exact timing of the exercises is not yet known. The opposition suggests they may coincide with the presidential elections.
"It cannot be ruled out that these elections may take place under Russia's control," says Latushka.
"Lukashenko is so afraid of society that it cannot even be ruled out that he will want the Russian army to be present in the country during the election," he adds.
The previous presidential elections in Belarus were held on August 8, 2021. Officially, Alexander Lukashenko received over 80% of the votes. However, the opposition and the international community considered the results to be falsified, pointing to numerous irregularities.
After the elections, a series of protests occurred, which were suppressed. As a result, many Belarusians ended up in prison, while some left the country.
