Beijing's nuclear expansion outpaces aging American arsenal

China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. For decades, Beijing maintained a relatively stable potential, with a few dozen land-based missiles with nuclear warheads, placed in fixed silos and on a limited number of mobile launchers.

Even this modest arsenal was partially reduced in the 1990s, but in recent years, China has rapidly caught up with the United States and Russia.

In just a few years, China has built approximately 300 intercontinental missile silos. Missile silo fields have emerged in the Chinese deserts in at least three locations (Hami, Yumen, and Hanggin Qi, as well as the Jilantai training center), and satellite images show the scale of Beijing's armament.

It is visible from space—the images reveal not only the locations of the bases but also the rapid pace at which new installations are being constructed.

Although popular culture has solidified the image of missile bases where silos are next to each other, in reality, they are hundreds of yards or even miles apart. This aims to make it difficult to destroy the entire base with one nuclear warhead.

Moreover, not all silos must contain missiles, as some could have been built as decoys. It is also worth noting that Chinese grandiosity does not always go hand in hand with quality—as it turned out, some of the newly built silos are unusable due to various defects.

There are increasing doubts about a scandal revealed by Bloomberg, in which rocket fuel in the Chinese rocket forces was swapped with water. Although these reports were echoed by media around the world, some experts believe that Beijing deliberately disinformation to conceal the actual reasons for the purges in the army and administration.

The scale of the expansion of China's nuclear triad, especially its land-based component, has raised concerns in the United States. According to a Pentagon report presented to Congress, the number of Chinese launchers now exceeds that of American launchers. The Pentagon has approximately 450 silos, of which 400 are combat-ready.

The American problem, in this case, is not the number but the contents of the silos—they contain Minuteman III missiles, which were commissioned over half a century ago. The American nuclear arsenal is still vast, but it is also a relic of older technology.

This is the result of a series of decisions that led to the decommissioning of the modern LGM-118A Peacekeeper missiles in 2005. As a result, while Russia is intensively modernizing its strategic rocket forces and China is expanding them, the United States is left with half-century-old missiles.

The work on the new LGM-35A Sentinel missile is an attempt to improve the situation, but in the most optimistic scenario, it will achieve operational readiness no earlier than 2030.

Meanwhile, Beijing, which has a complete nuclear triad (land, sea, and air-based delivery systems), is also developing its maritime component. Currently, China operates Type 094 submarines as carriers of ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. Their original armament—JL-2 missiles—did not allow attacks on the USA from Chinese territorial waters.

To execute an attack, the submarines had to sail far east, increasing their chance of detection and destruction. Currently, Americans no longer have this possibility. In recent years, Beijing has rearmed its submarines with JL-3 missiles, whose range of 6,200 miles allows attacks on the United States from their waters without risking valuable submarines.

Moreover, China has already developed a successor to the Type 094 submarines—the Type 096—which will probably be slightly larger, certainly quieter, and built to meet stealth requirements. Satellite images show that construction of at least one new type of submarine has already begun. The probable entry into service of the new units is estimated to be at the end of the current decade.