Baltic on edge: Rising threats from Russian tanker peril

On December 15, in the Kerch Strait, two Russian tankers, Wolgoneft-212 and Wolgoneft-239, sank after their hulls split in half. The oil spill contaminated the coast of the Krasnodar region in Russia. By the next day, on the night from Monday to Tuesday, another tanker, Volgoneft 109, malfunctioned in the Sea of Azov, while on Tuesday evening, SOS signals were sent from near the Kuril Islands by the Russian tanker "Mercury."

The troubling pattern continues. "These are further proofs of the threat posed by old, worn-out, and often non-compliant tankers used by Russia to transport oil," explains Dr. Damian Szacawa, an assistant professor at the Institute of International Relations at UMCS and a senior analyst at the Baltic Team of the Institute of Central Europe in Lublin. "If such an incident occurred in the Baltic, we would be facing a disaster with international ramifications," he emphasizes.

The issue involves tankers flying the Russian flag and the so-called "shadow fleet" — ships from third countries used to transport Russian oil. Incidents are increasing, even in waters close to us.

As the expert highlights, Russia is doing everything to circumvent the sanctions imposed on it. It uses ships from low-cost shipowners registered in Bermuda, Hong Kong, Liberia, the Marshall Islands, and even under Greek, Cypriot, or Maltese flags.

"The Kyiv School of Economics data shows that the 'shadow fleet' is transporting more oil than ever. In June 2024, Russia transported approximately 4.1 million barrels daily using this fleet, double the amount from June 2023. This mere increase in traffic raises the risk of malfunction. Suppose we add to this that Moscow lacks open access to reliable shipowners and must rely on shadow vessels. In that case, we can assume similar incidents will occur much more frequently," explains Dr Szacawa.

Additionally, 80% of Russian raw materials and petroleum products pass through waters belonging to EU and G7 countries. Moreover, 60% of the maritime export of Russian crude oil is transported through the Baltic Sea, as illustrated by ship tracking data from the company Kpler, which the MarineTraffic portal shares.

Experts and ecologists emphasize how sensitive the Baltic Sea is.

"The Baltic Sea has been treated uniquely, as protective measures have been applied for years (e.g., concerning sulfur content in fuels used for ship movement - bunker fuel). An important component of these threats is the crew, which often includes inexperienced workers from Asia and the Pacific," Michał Paszkowski from IES.

With its relatively shallow basin, high maritime traffic, poor water exchange, and dilapidated "shadow fleet," which often operates without proper insurance, any leak can have catastrophic consequences.

The Baltic is a protected sea with special monitoring status. Ships entering it should meet strict regulations, including emission standards and specific technical conditions, like double hulls, which prevent leaks in the event of a collision and increase safety, points out Dr. Szacawa.

He notes that Russian "shadow fleet" ships are like floating bombs. However, they pose not only an ecological threat. Russia, with China's involvement, uses them for espionage and possibly for sabotage.

There are many doubts surrounding the destruction of the fiber-optic cable between Sweden and Estonia in 2023, the previous leak from the Balticconnector pipeline, and the recent damage to the telecom connection linking Lithuania with Sweden and Finland with Germany in the Kattegat Strait by the China-related ship Yi Peng 3 with a Russian crew.

The Baltic is a crucial point. It's the maritime route used to secure oil, fuel, and gas supplies for the country. The oil terminal and LNG terminal on the Baltic are our resource and energy windows to the world. Power lines and a pipeline connecting us with Norway run along the bottom of the sea. Each of these facilities could be a target for sabotage, and the sensitive infrastructure is increasing, ranging from offshore wind farms to the nuclear power plant being built on Poland's coast.

The perception of Europe regarding events in the Baltic is changing. While last year's incident, the responsible container ship NewNew Polar Bear sailed away freely, concrete actions have been taken regarding Yi Peng 3. The ship has been detained and is under inspection by Danish and German vessels, emphasizes Dr. Szacawa.

The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO has turned the Baltic into an internal sea of NATO. Although the Western coalition already had strategic control over this area, the current balance of power gives it a significant advantage.

In its 14th sanctions package, the EU has taken steps that affected the "shadow fleet." It created tools to control ships passing through its territory. Strict cooperation and information exchange about the Russian fleet was intended to help coordinate responses to the threats posed by these ships and entities facilitating the shadow fleet's operations. Previously, sanctions targeted ships' insurance and certification.

As Paszkowski adds, ships that are 29 years old are difficult to insure, so various workarounds are applied. "Most of these ships sail under the flags of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, showing a certain coordination of actions and cooperation between these countries," he assesses.

"Last week, we adopted the 15th package of sanctions, which includes measures against the Russian shadow fleet and channels bypassing sanctions. We are preparing the 16th package of sanctions," said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during a debate in the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

Dr. Szacawa, however, points to the initiatives of the Baltic states themselves, particularly Poland's well-received proposal, presented by Prime Minister Donald Tusk during the last summit of the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8 includes: Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) in Harpsund, Sweden.

Tusk would like joint patrols to sail the Baltic under the "Navy Policing" framework, similar to what NATO fighters perform in Baltic Air Policing. The concept was supported by authorities from Lithuania and Estonia, among others. The head of the government also proposed that Poland assist Denmark regarding the ban on entry to the Baltic Sea and sign a new strategic partnership agreement with Sweden.

The 15th sanctions package entails listing about 52 ships on the blacklist. This is a relatively small number, considering that the "shadow fleet" is estimated at about 1,400-1,500 ships. According to the plan, inspections will be conducted on suspicious ships to verify whether they possess the correct documentation and insurance. If not, further units will be added to the list of ships banned from re-entering the Baltic, reminds Dr. Szacawa.

As the expert points out, the EU has tools and legal grounds derived from maritime regulations, conventions, and international agreements to eliminate ships posing a threat preemptively. However, Brussels must create specific guidelines on how to enforce political declarations. "Denmark and Sweden's role will be important here, as they control the straits through which ships exit the Baltic Sea.

Tankers carrying Russian oil must pass through one of the four Danish straits: the Great Belt, Little Belt, Sound, and Fehmarn Belt. This is where suspicious units could be controlled.